One way to think of the College Football Playoff race, at this point in the game, is a collection of lanes, four of which will eventually end in the Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl—the national semifinals. This is an especially helpful way to conceptualize it if you’re a fan of a team with one of the fringier shots, because as more of these lanes close, yours gets closer and closer to being one of the four. This weekend, with Michigan State losing, one of them closed. With it impossible for a team to lose just once but not win the Big Ten, the only Big Ten lane still open (as best we can tell) is that of winning the conference. There were eleven lanes, now there are ten. Here are the ten:
1-5. Power Five Champion
All five conferences have at least one team alive to be a one-loss or undefeated Power Five champion, something that traditionally has almost always led to a playoff berth. It might not this year, but then again…it probably will, with Wake Forest likely to lose again, making 12-1 Oklahoma the only real question mark at the moment.
6-7. One-Loss Power Five Runner-Up (SEC, Big 12)
With Michigan State’s loss to Purdue, this can only happen in two leagues, and specifically, it can only happen to two teams: Georgia and Oklahoma. Traditionally, it isn’t a great path for making the Playoff, but the field this year appears more open than it often has. Again, no guarantee, but this is close.
8. Two-Loss SEC Non-Champion
If any league’s going to get a two-loss team in without that team winning said league (or with that team winning said league), it’s the SEC. Alabama and Texas A&M each still have a path to this, with A&M having the better win but the worse losses. Would the team in question have to go 11-2? Maybe. But we aren’t closing the 10-2 possibility yet. It’s on the outside, but it exists.
9-10. Undefeated Cincinnati; One-Loss Notre Dame
It’s unclear what would have to happen for these guys to make it, which makes them, just like the two-loss SEC teams in Lane 8, the ones this sort of thinking most helps in terms of evaluating rooting interests. They’re each wanting as many of the other eight or nine lanes to close as possible (Cincinnati probably doesn’t want Notre Dame’s lane to close, since they want that win in South Bend to be as impressive as possible), and the more emphatically, the better.
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This isn’t a flawless way to think about it, and it’s possible more than six of the ten lanes will close and ones we believed closed will spring open. Still, it’s helpful, partially because it helps lump teams that would have to occupy the same path (Ohio State/Michigan State/Michigan, for example) into one lane, rather than being viewed as three independent contenders. Two of those three teams will lose again. Two, at the very least.
Now, the other ways we’ve been looking at the picture.
As we’ve been citing these last few weeks, over the seven years of the playoff, the 28 teams have had the following résumés:
- Undefeated Power Five/Notre Dame team (11 out of 11 possible teams)
- One-loss Power Five conference champion (14 out of 15 possible teams)
- One-loss Power Five not conference champion (3 out of 11* possible teams) [*2014 Baylor and 2014 TCU included in this bucket and not as conference champions because committee deemed them not conference champions]
This doesn’t mean teams have to come from these buckets, or that teams will come from these buckets. It’s a statement of what’s been a proven playoff path, and an indicator of where the committee will look first for its teams before moving on to other pastures.
Which teams could still finish these paths? Here’s where we’re at:
Undefeated Power Five/Notre Dame team:
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
One-loss Power Five conference champion:
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- Ohio State
- Alabama
- Michigan
- Oregon
- Michigan State
- Oklahoma State
- Wake Forest
One-loss Power Five not conference champion:
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
That’s ten teams left with a conventional path, with eyes on Cincinnati and Texas A&M as teams with unconventional paths that might prove good enough. Twelve teams of interest, ten lanes, and, as we’ll list here, three contenders and three factors (contenders = teams it’s reasonable to think will make the playoff, factors = teams it’s reasonable to think could make the playoff).
Contenders: Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State
Each of these three should be favored in every remaining game, though none of the three are more than 50% likely to win out yet. Oklahoma and Georgia each probably have a loss to give, though Oklahoma has some work to do as it faces Baylor, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State over these next three weeks. 12-1 should be enough, but at the same time, the Sooners haven’t impressed.
Factors: Alabama, Cincinnati, Oregon
We move Alabama down to just being a factor as their likelihood of beating Georgia continues to slip. They’re probably the second-best team in the country, but they’re closer to the mix there than was previously the case.
Unlisted: Michigan, Oregon, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, UTSA
We’ll keep giving UTSA love as long as they keep winning. For the others, each is more than 50% likely to lose once more, with A&M and Notre Dame holding the best chances of keeping their current number of losses. I don’t want to hammer the A&M thing home too far—they’re in the mix only in a next-team-up sense, really. That Mississippi State loss is fairly bad, and the Arkansas loss isn’t good. We may be overly conservative in putting them in the conversation. But with losses as likely as they are from these other teams, we have to consider potential two-loss résumés, and among that category, theirs would be one of the best.
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What does our model think? Here’s where it expects tomorrow night’s rankings to line up:
| Expected Ranking | Team | Est. Ranking Score | FPA | Expected Ranking w/o FPA |
| 1 | Georgia | 100.0 | 0.0 | 1 |
| 2 | Alabama | 93.1 | 2.0 | 3 |
| 3 | Oregon | 91.7 | 7.8 | 12 |
| 4 | Ohio State | 90.4 | -1.0 | 2 |
| 5 | Oklahoma | 89.4 | 0.3 | 4 |
| 6 | Michigan | 88.2 | 2.5 | 8 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 87.8 | 1.3 | 7 |
| 8 | Notre Dame | 87.2 | 0.0 | 6 |
| 9 | Michigan State | 86.1 | -2.0 | 5 |
| 10 | Oklahoma State | 86.1 | 1.0 | 9 |
| 11 | Wake Forest | 82.8 | -1.5 | 11 |
| 12 | Wisconsin | 78.2 | 0.2 | 15 |
| 13 | Baylor | 77.2 | -1.0 | 14 |
| 14 | Texas A&M | 76.6 | 0.0 | 17 |
| 15 | BYU | 76.1 | 0.0 | 19 |
| 16 | Iowa | 75.5 | -3.0 | 13 |
| 17 | NC State | 75.3 | -1.2 | 18 |
| 18 | Mississippi | 75.2 | -0.2 | 21 |
| 19 | Purdue | 75.1 | -1.8 | 16 |
| 20 | UTSA | 74.8 | -10.2 | 10 |
| 21 | Penn State | 74.2 | 2.0 | 27 |
| 22 | San Diego State | 73.7 | 0.2 | 23 |
| 23 | Pittsburgh | 73.6 | -1.8 | 20 |
| 24 | Clemson | 73.1 | 0.0 | 24 |
| 25 | Utah | 72.6 | 0.0 | 25 |
FPA, as a reminder, carries over from last week, with Penn State’s the only one that isn’t a reaction to the rankings (their loss to Iowa is expected to be half-forgiven, based on the Kelly Bryant Rule™). More on it here.
Obviously, there are some places where we think the model is wrong. Oklahoma is unlikely to jump Cincinnati and Michigan. Michigan is unlikely to jump Cincinnati. Wisconsin is unlikely to jump all nine of those schools the model sees them jumping. We often say that the committee’s rankings aren’t as much of a horse race as the AP and Coaches Polls are, where the week before is an important starting point, and this is true—the committee seems to start with more of a blank slate each week than those polls do. But at the same time, there’s a horse race element here, where indirect changes in résumés (Oklahoma’s win over TCU improved, Oklahoma’s win over Nebraska improved, Wisconsin’s win over Purdue improved) are sometimes briefly ignored. Overall, the message here is that the gap between second and tenth is rather small, and the gap between twelfth and, well, somewhere beyond 25th is also very small. The space between each slot in the rankings is not uniform, and it’s helpful to remember that sometimes.
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Finally, the games themselves:
Big Ten
Purdue was only a field goal underdog, and our model measured them to be slighted already last week. Expect them to climb in rather firmly. They’re a solid team with a good résumé. That said, they were a three-point underdog last week and they’re sitting as a twenty-point underdog this week in Columbus, even after beating Michigan State with some vigor. Six or seven of those 23 points come from location, but even with that, this means Ohio State’s nearly three scores better than Michigan State on a neutral field. The Buckeyes are good, even with some low margins of victory the last two weeks.
Elsewhere in the B1G, Ohio State survived Nebraska, Minnesota forgot to show up to play Illinois, Iowa escaped Northwestern, and Michigan/Wisconsin/Penn State beat up Indiana/Rutgers/Maryland, respectively. Penn State should climb into the rankings. Wisconsin should rise. Michigan really should’ve beaten MSU.
This week, Michigan goes to State College, Ohio State hosts Purdue, and Michigan State tries to bounce back against visiting Maryland. Also, if you were wondering, Wisconsin’s got the head-to-head over Iowa and Purdue, and their final three regular season games go: Northwestern (H), Nebraska (H), Minnesota (A). They are the prohibitive Big Ten West favorites. Godspeed, Badgers. We don’t trust you.
SEC
Alabama wasn’t in active danger often against LSU, but they looked decidedly underwhelming against a team that’s going to need to beat either Arkansas or Texas A&M to make a bowl. This is not last year’s Crimson Tide. It might not matter, but this is not last year’s Crimson Tide.
Texas A&M pulled away late from Auburn in a rock fight, knocking the Tigers out of that two-loss-SEC lane. Arkansas beat Mississippi State, giving the committee a chance to course correct and remove the Bulldogs from the rankings. Tennessee beat Kentucky in Lexington, which should take the Wildcats out of the top 25. Florida got stomped at South Carolina, which might move the needle on Dan Mullen’s future in Gainesville (and college football as a whole). Mississippi handled Liberty. Georgia handled Mizzou.
Georgia has one of its toughest remaining tests next week, and they’re favored by three touchdowns right now as they go to Knoxville. Georgia is so much better than everyone else right now. So much better. Texas A&M goes to Oxford. Auburn hosts Mississippi State. Remember: The Tigers still have to play Bama, and they only trail by one in the loss column at the moment. I don’t know the SEC tiebreakers, but the West is a bit of a race right now. Alabama hosts New Mexico State.
ACC
Wake Forest lost to UNC, and while it was a nonconference game officially, it moves the Deacon Dream that much closer to its expected conclusion. They’re not underdogs at the moment for this coming week, hosting NC State, but they’re close. The game’s in Winston-Salem.
NC State (who’s trying to win the Atlantic, and who gets Syracuse and UNC at home after playing Wake, meaning they control their fate) beat Florida State in Tallahassee in what could’ve been a tricky one. Pitt blew out Duke, remaining the overall conference favorite. Clemson continues to lurk in the Atlantic, one loss back of NC State and two back of Wake after coming back to beat Louisville Saturday night. They have just one conference game left, and it’s at home against Wake Forest the weekend before Thanksgiving. Miami continues to lurk in the Coastal, beating Georgia Tech to remain a loss back of Pitt with the head-to-head advantage.
Next week, in addition to Wake/NCSU, we’ve got Pitt hosting UNC and Miami going to FSU.
Pac-12
Oregon’s loss at Washington didn’t materialize. The Ducks took care of business, winning by ten in Seattle. Kind of impressive, to be honest. They host Washington State on Saturday night for some Pac-12 After Dark.
Utah walloped Stanford in Palo Alto on Friday, reminding everyone why they’re the actual Pac-12 favorite. They might enter the top 25 tomorrow. The model has them 25th. They play at Arizona on Saturday as three or four-score favorites. They’ll clinch the South with a win or an ASU loss at Washington.
Big 12
Baylor went down on Saturday, losing at TCU. Oklahoma State handled West Virginia to move into even clearer possession of the second spot in the league. Iowa State hammered Texas in Ames to hang around. If the Pokes can beat TCU at home next week (which they should do), they’ll be a win in Lubbock away from making the Big 12 Championship even if they lose Bedlam, provided Iowa State doesn’t win in Norman the week before Bedlam (and also win in Lubbock/beat TCU at home). Oklahoma State has a very good chance of making this an all-Oklahoma conference title game, which is something OU would vastly prefer over having to deal with ISU a second time, or even perhaps Baylor or Texas.
Speaking of Oklahoma and Baylor, they play in Waco next week as a dangerous spurt begins for the Sooners. There’s a chance they’d be held out at 12-1 if Cincinnati finishes 13-0. I don’t know how good a chance that is, but there’s a chance.
Cincinnati/Notre Dame
The Bearcats, like Alabama, underwhelmed, forcing a final-minute goal line fumble to hold off Tulsa by eight. Worse still, SMU lost at Memphis, robbing Cincy of a potential ranked win. Houston took care of South Florida, and might well be ranked by the time the AAC Championship rolls around, but Cincinnati is very much not in control of its fate.
Helping the cause was Notre Dame, who beat Navy to move to 8-1. They have a tough one in Charlottesville next weekend, then finish the year hosting Georgia Tech and visiting Stanford. Work to do, but they’ve gained some heft through Wisconsin and Purdue rallying like they have. That, in turn, should help Cincy. At least a little.
The Rest
UTSA beat up UTEP, and the committee shouldn’t be able to hold them off any longer. It’ll be interesting to see if some of their FPA gets wiped. Some of that is a fair Conference USA adjustment, but it’s still massive.
In other Group of Five news, Boise State pummeled Fresno State, taking the Bulldogs out of the top 25 and damaging Oregon’s résumé a little bit. Army beat Air Force.
In the Ivy League, Dartmouth took Princeton down by 24, setting up a dramatic final two weeks. Dartmouth, Princeton, and Yale each have one conference loss while Harvard has two. Dartmouth has beaten all the other three. Princeton beat Harvard and plays Yale this week. Harvard and Yale play in two weeks.
South Carolina State edged Howard by a field goal, maintaining control over the MEAC. Jackson State and Prairie View A&M remain on a collision course in the SWAC.
In playoff-playing FCS land, Illinois State upset Northern Iowa in overtime, putting the Panthers back on the bubble. Missouri State got a huge road win against Southern Illinois. South Dakota State took down North Dakota State in Brookings. Madness in the MVFC. In the Big Sky, Weber State laid an egg against Portland State to kill their faint hopes while Montana State won at Eastern Washington to keep their conference title chances high. Incarnate Word won at home over Southeastern Louisiana in a 107-point thriller.
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Just MACtion these next two nights, plus the rankings reveal tomorrow amidst all the basketball. Come Thursday, we’ve got UNC/Pitt. In the meantime, keep an eye on the fringes of the rankings. The top ten isn’t all that interesting, unless something very unexpected is unveiled. Where those teams’ opponents stack up might mean something.
