1. Trevor Williams was absolutely dominant.
It wasn’t until the Avisail Garcia single in the seventh that Williams allowed contact with an XBA of .500 or better, meaning everything that came off a Brewer bat in the first six innings was more likely, by quality, to be an out than a hit. He walked only two and hit one guy. He managed the whole outing on just 85 pitches. It was an absolute gem, and a cautiously exciting one.
2. Andrew Chafin was lights-out.
Chafin came in and changed the game, taking what had gotten a little white-knuckle and ironing it back out. He made it neat and tidy, and he did it in a neat and tidy way.
3. I like the bench.
I haven’t done any looking comparing Matt Duffy and Eric Sogard to other players in their roles, but there’s something low-stress about having veterans on the bench. It feels like they don’t have to be managed the way long-term investments are.
4. Alec Mills, closer.
And speaking of low stress, Mills filling in on a night off for Kimbrel was admirable. The Cubs didn’t need the win coming into the day, but once they took the 4-0 lead, they needed it. Mills shut the door.
5. Home runs are still fun.
That fourth inning was a riot.
6. I forget how scary HBP’s are.
Both Javy Báez and Willson Contreras took scary ones—Báez on his knee, Contreras on his helmet. Both seemed to be fine, but there was stomach-dropping in those moments, and while I might be over-remembering Kris Bryant’s wrist injury from last year (which didn’t come from a hit by pitch but did start small, with him staying in the game and producing), it’s creating, for me at least, some underlying fear of a lingering knock, which I suppose is a constant in baseball to which I’m not always tuned in.
7. The lineup is rather fluid right now.
Ian Happ is not in a strict platoon. Joc Pederson and Jason Heyward aren’t going to play every single day.
This clears things up a bit from the weekend. It seems, at least for now, that David Ross is going to give guys a generous number of days off, and he’s going to rotate it, and he’s going to play general lefty/righty matchups, and if you’re going to do that, you have to start early with someone specific. That person, on Saturday, was Happ.
8. The Cubs stole another base.
I’m not trying to make stolen bases sound more valuable than they are, but for a Cubs team that’s struggled to find sparks offensively, I’m curious about the psychological impact of the aggression. Jake Marisnick grabbed one last night.
9. The series is there for the taking.
And with it, a very early, lot-of-baseball-to-come leg up on the Brewers.
***
Around the Division:
The Cardinals beat the Marlins, 4-1. The Reds beat the Pirates, 5-3. Here are the standings, along with FanGraphs’s division championship probability:
T-1. Cubs (3-1, 25.2%)
T-1. Cincinnati (3-1, 22.1%)
3. St. Louis (2-2, 18.5%)
T-4. Milwaukee (1-3, 33.8%)
T-4. Pittsburgh (1-3, 0.3%)
Beating the Brewers (or the Reds, or the Cardinals) is worth more than beating the Pirates in terms of changing the overall picture, both because it’s less expected and because it pulls down a competitor.
Up Next:
Game Two against the Brewers tonight:
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
6:40 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures falling into the 60’s throughout the game. Wind blowing out towards left-center.
The Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Freddy Peralta
The Opponent:
Peralta’s gradually fallen away from the Brewers rotation over his three big-league seasons, starting in 14 of his 16 appearances in ’18, eight of 39 appearances in ’19, and just one of 15 appearances last year. He already has a bullpen appearance to his name this season, and while that’s not unusual for a fifth starter on opening weekend, it does demonstrate he’s likely still a swingman. His longest outing last year was just four innings, but he did go five and a third in his final spring training start, so while I’m having trouble finding his pitch count from that outing, it’s probably safe to assume that though he’s a swingman, he’s not going to be a three-inning guy by design or anything like that.
Peralta’s hard to hit. His XBA has twice been among the top 6% of those of major league pitchers, and last year he struck out batters at a higher rate than 96% of his counterparts. He does struggle with command at times, though, including in his one relief outing in which, over two innings, he struck out six but walked three.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -110 favorites, implying just better than a 50% shot of getting the win (even odds would be -105 in this case). The over under is at 9½, but the odds are leaning slightly towards the under.
Cubs News:
Not a whole lot. Would guess the full bullpen’s available, though Mills might not fill any necessary long relief role after throwing his inning last night.
Cubs Thoughts:
Winning is good, and grabbing another win (and with it, the series) tonight would be great. The Brewers don’t get a they-should-really-win-this series until the weekend of the 17th, when they host Pittsburgh, so the further the Cubs can put them down early, the better.
Alzolay’s never gone more than five innings in a MLB game, but in both of those outings (which were each last year) he struck out six or more while walking two or fewer and allowing just one run. A performance like that is too high a goal, but if he can pitch into the fifth and keep the runs at two or fewer, he’ll have done his job.
