What’s going on here? Read this post.
Every major trade (to us, so Chris Martin makes the cut as a Cubs trade), from June 27th through July 31st. We’ll try to add the minor ones down the line, but wanted to stay ahead of the big ones. Credit to FanGraphs for virtually all data, and some methodology.
The Luis Castillo Trade
Mariners Receive: Luis Castillo
Reds Receive: Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, Levi Stoudt, Andrew Moore
Castillo rest-of-season projected WAR: 1.2
Castillo rest-of-season salary: $2.5M
Castillo rest-of-contract projected WAR: 4.0
Castillo rest-of-contract projected salary: $11.7M
Marte value: $55M (60 FV position player)
Arroyo value: $4M (40+ FV position player)
Stoudt value: $1M (40 FV pitcher)
Moore value: $0.5M (35+ pitcher)
Present value: Mariners net $10.8M/1.2 WAR
Future value: Reds net $38.7M/4.3 WAR
Commentary: This one is fairly straightforward, though FanGraphs is low on Edwin Arroyo relative to some others, which could be deflating the future value number even further.
The Andrew Benintendi Trade
Yankees Receive: Andrew Benintendi
Royals Receive: T.J. Sikkema, Beck Way, Chandler Champlain
Benintendi rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.9
Benintendi rest-of-season salary: $2.8M
Benintendi qualifying offer lost compensation cost: $1.1M
Sikkema value: $3M (40+ FV pitcher)
Way value: $1M (40 FV pitcher)
Champlain value: $0 (sub-35+ FV pitcher)
Present value: Yankees net $8.1M/0.9 WAR
Future value: Royals net $5.7M/0.6 WAR, Yankees net -$6.8M/-0.8 WAR
Commentary: Would Benintendi have received and declined a qualifying offer, then signed for $50M or more? We’re not sure. We guessed yes, but Benintendi’s 5.0-fWAR 2018 was a long time ago, and the years since have not been as good for him. He’s entering free agency at the young age of 28, so he should have just entered his prime, which is what made us guess yes. If the guess is no, the Royals gave up $1.1M less in future value.
The Carlos Santana Trade
Mariners Receive: Carlos Santana, Cash (“most of” Santana’s remaining salary, per Anne Rogers)
Royals Receive: Wyatt Mills, William Fleming
Santana rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.5
Santana rest-of-season salary: $5.3M (est. $3.9 paid by KC)
Mills value: $3M (40+ FV pitcher)
Fleming value: $0.5M (35+ FV pitcher)
Present value: Mariners net $4.5M/0.5 WAR
Future value: Royals net $4.9M/0.5 WAR
Commentary: We had to estimate Santana’s rest-of-season numbers at the time of the trade. We estimated the Royals were paying roughly 75% of Santana’s rest-of-season salary.
The Chris Martin Trade
Dodgers Receive: Chris Martin
Cubs Receive: Zach McKinstry
Martin rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.2
Martin rest-of-season salary: $0.8M
McKinstry rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.2
McKinstry rest-of-season salary: $0.2M
McKinstry future value: $3M (see commentary below)
Present value: Dodgers net $1.8M/0.2 WAR, Cubs net $0.0M/0.0 WAR
Future value: Cubs net $3.6M/0.4 WAR
Commentary: McKinstry is a challenging one because he’s no longer a prospect but his MLB sample is too small to make many judgments, and the projections we have on him are for a small sample size. He’s 27 years old and he was a 45 FV prospect last year, so we’re being very conservative here on the Cubs’ side and taking the $6M value we’d see for a 45 FV position player and reducing it to the $4M we’d see for a 40+ FV player, but with an MLB year of that value aggressively burned off.
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There are, of course, other trades to get through, some on the level of the Chris Martin one. We’ll mix those in as we can, and if we have to keep catching up on them after the deadline, we will. In the meantime, expect at least today’s big trades valued out tomorrow.
