I theorized yesterday that part of the reason we’ve seen more success from 15 and 16-seeds the last few years is the 2011 expansion to 68 teams. With that expansion, we got one additional 16-seed, which means compared to the 2001 through 2010 timeframe (the 65-team era), there was one 16-seed who would’ve been a 15 in the previous setup, plus one 15-seed who would’ve been a 14. This matters, of course, it certainly matters: UMBC would’ve been a 15-seed, FGCU and MTSU would’ve been 14-seeds. But Lehigh? Norfolk State? Oral Roberts, Saint Peter’s, and Princeton? All would have held on that 15-seed line. Fairleigh Dickinson would’ve been a 16-seed in any iteration with 64 or more teams.
It stands to reason, then, that what we’ve seen from 15-seeds the last three years—one into each Sweet Sixteen—is not just a sly product of the growth to 68. What we’re seeing is different. 15-seeds are winning more games than they used to. Is it statistically significant? I’m not sure. We’re dealing with a very small sample size. But it’s happening. It’s definitely happening. This isn’t just an NCAA sleight of hand with the additional play-in game.
One (or a couple) thought(s) on the other seven games, and then on the eight today:
San Diego State over Furman
San Diego State was not, in the end, negatively affected by the early tip time. Or rather, they were not meaningfully affected.
Tennessee over Duke
The ACC could realistically miss the Sweet Sixteen entirely for the first time since 1979. Duke was the best team in the ACC, but they might have had a tough draw, because while Tennessee is without Zakai Ziegler, they’re also a team whose results didn’t match their ratings. They had close losses and big wins, which with the NCAA Tournament leads to a seeding a little worse than you might get with a bigger sample to iron out the luck.
Arkansas over Kansas
Would Bill Self had drawn up a better play coming out of that timeout? Would he have gone for a three? It probably didn’t matter in that instance, but whether Self’s absence was worth two points will haunt Kansas for a while. On the flipside, though, like Tennessee, Arkansas had a bad KenPom Luck number, and Kansas’s was good, and the ramifications of that included a highly-rated 8-seed playing a lowly-rated 1-seed.
Houston over Auburn
Houston answered the freakin’ bell. Things were dire for the Cougars, who trailed by ten at the half with their two best players battling injuries. Marcus Sasser wasn’t having it, though. What a ballsy performance. Houston does this big comeback thing so often, and has for years, but there’s always enough doubt around them that it plays.
Texas over Penn State
I did not come away from this impressed with Texas. This was the worst Texas has played since at least the TCU loss which knocked them out of the Big 12 race, and maybe since the Texas Tech loss over a month ago. That isn’t to say they were terrible or anything—they’re a good team who beat another good team in a high-pressure situation—but Texas was the best fully healthy team in the tournament entering the day, and Alabama and Houston both put that to bed a little.
UCLA over Northwestern
Northwestern was so pesky. Hell of a game by the Wildcats. I suppose we should have expected it.
I would really like David Singleton’s ankle to be ok. Not because I’ve bet on UCLA (I haven’t) or have them advancing far in my bracket (I don’t), but because this is just too many damn injuries to too many great players. It’s not cool. What gives, human body?
Alabama over Maryland
Given it’s still impossible to know how good or bad Maryland is, owing to the gulf between their home results and results away from home, it’s impossible to know how good Alabama really looked beating a deserving 8-seed by 22 points. There’s just no way to know if Alabama running away with a game against an aggregately competent team means Alabama is good. Were they the only high seed to not struggle? More or less, yes. But we just can’t know. We owe that to Maryland for their constant confusion all year.
**
Today:
12:10 PM EDT: Xavier vs. Pitt (CBS)
There is a fearful sense that Pitt is going to win this and remove our chance to laugh at the ACC. They shouldn’t, but Xavier isn’t the most trustworthy. Especially after that Kennesaw State game.
2:40 PM EDT: Kansas State vs. Kentucky (CBS)
Betting markets are disrespecting Kansas State, and I say that not as a betting nugget but because it reflects the baffling national dismissal of this team upon whom the nation was once irrationally high. They’ve gotten better since those January days. They’re playing their best ball.
5:15 PM EDT: Marquette vs. Michigan State (CBS)
Shaka Smart tries to get over the hump, Tom Izzo tries to nail another splint to the legs of his campaign to remain a current great.
6:10 PM EDT: UConn vs. Saint Mary’s (TNT)
UConn fans have taken over Albany, just like they took over Madison Square Garden before Marquette kicked them out. In other words? Don’t put too much stock in the crowd. Also? I don’t think we have any good idea what to expect from either of these two teams. So much inconsistency.
7:10 PM EDT: Baylor vs. Creighton (TBS)
This is exciting. I am glad we’re getting this matchup. Creighton does play defense—Baylor abstains on that front—but the teams are still so electric and so full of Guys.
7:45 PM EDT: Florida Atlantic vs. Fairleigh Dickinson (TruTV)
Don’t look now, but FAU has a pretty damn good route to the Final Four.
8:40 PM EDT: Indiana vs. Miami (TNT)
Indiana’s strength is down low, Miami’s is in its guard play. Conventional wisdom says that favors the Hurricanes, but Indiana’s the better team. More likely than not, this is the ACC’s last stand. Plenty going on.
9:40 PM EDT: Gonzaga vs. TCU (TBS)
Is this going to be as fun as we have been conditioned to believe?
