Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident bracketologist, as well as our all-around numbers guy. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size was only 51 bets, but his picks published here and at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 29%, meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 67% of their straight bets.
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Last night went well. But as today’s games wind on, lines aren’t looking as favorable to our cause.
Still, here are four picks that just might go our way. Lines are taken from the Vegas consensus I’m seeing online.
Colorado vs. California – Pac-12 Opening Round
California is, by their standards, hot. They’ve won three straight, including an upset of Pac-12 Regular Season Champion Washington that ended a 16-game losing streak. If you’re adding things up in your head and wondering how many games the Pac-12 plays, you’re onto something, and the answer to that question is 18. Cal started conference play 0-15 and has now won three straight. What a league.
Colorado, though, isn’t exactly limping in. The Buffaloes have also won three straight, and won an additional five of the seven that preceded those three. They’ve come on strong since a tough start to conference play, and as a young team, could build the program some great momentum if they can win a few in Las Vegas and crack the NIT field (better still, they aren’t out of the Pac-12 Championship picture: our model gives them a 10% chance of winning the league’s tournament).
Cal will have the height advantage when Connor Vanover’s on the floor, but while they aren’t outstanding, Colorado isn’t a bad rebounding team. The Buffaloes will get hurt if they turn the ball over, but if they can at least do a decent job of protecting it, a cover should follow.
Pick: Colorado -10 (-110). Low confidence.
Air Force vs. San Jose State – Mountain West Opening Round
Poor San Jose State. It’s been almost a decade since the team had a winning record, and a win tonight would give the Spartans only their third five-win season in the last five years.
Air Force isn’t much, either, but they at least take care of business against the San Jose State’s of the league.
Both of these teams are pretty darn bad defensively. Both are even worse offensively. Both like to slow the pace on the offensive side of things. The under looks good.
Pick: Under 146.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Butler vs. Providence – Big East Opening Round
It’s been a disappointing year for both these teams, especially given that the Big East was uncharacteristically open for the taking. Any hope for either of salvaging an NCAAT bid requires a win today and an upset of Villanova tomorrow, and even that might not be enough.
On paper, the game’s effectively a tossup, though Butler’s slightly better on the aggregate. Which is why it’s odd that Providence is the slight favorite.
Pick: Butler to win +110. Low confidence.
Bucknell at Colgate – Patriot League Championship
Colgate and Bucknell, regular season co-champions, have split their two matchups so far. The rubber match will send one to the NCAAT and, if the loser is Colgate, one to the NIT.
Colgate closed strong over the season’s final month, winning eight straight to climb from three games back while Bucknell lost three of their final five. Bucknell looks to have righted the ship, pulling away from Holy Cross in their first conference tournament game before wiping the floor with Lehigh in the semifinals.
Colgate, meanwhile, has done what they’ve been doing since the Super Bowl: winning games.
With tonight’s game at Colgate, and the Raiders a slightly better-rated team on the aggregate, the line’s just low enough to make it worth it to take Colgate to cover.
Pick: Colgate -3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
