Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident bracketologist, as well as our all-around numbers guy. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size was only 47 bets, but his picks published at All Things NIT had an average return on investment of 28%, meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 65% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Hello!
When you’re asked by a friend of the blog for college basketball picks, you oblige, and you hope fervently you don’t lead that friend astray.
These picks use the lines I’m seeing on the Vegas consensus as I write this up.
Fairleigh Dickinson @ St. Francis (PA) – NEC Championship
While the Northeast Conference isn’t one of the more successful leagues out there, and whichever team wins tonight is almost certain to wind up a 16-seed, this should still be a good game: our model has St. Francis as a 55% favorite.
Both teams rely on guard-centric cores who’ve played a lot of basketball together the last few seasons. Neither is particularly good at defense. Fairleigh Dickinson is selective with its three-point shooting, but when its guys launch, they’re among the most efficient in the country. St. Francis crashes the boards aggressively, which should work out well against a team as bad as Fairleigh Dickinson is at defensive rebounding.
Neither team plays particularly quickly, but it won’t be surprising if they beat a total that’s dropped since lines opened.
Also, it isn’t a stretch to take Fairleigh Dickinson to win. As a 45% underdog facing a +170 moneyline, the expected return on investment is over 20%. Make enough of those plays and you’ll come out ahead.
Pick: Fairleigh Dickinson to win +170. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 145.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Northeastern vs. Hofstra – CAA Championship
Hofstra nearly lost a stunner to Delaware last night, and Northeastern almost fell to Charleston in the wake of what many online labeled an awful call against Northeastern.
Both won, though, and here they are. As with the NEC Championship, this should be a good game: our model has it as almost exactly a tossup.
Each team is strong offensively. Northeastern’s going to try to slow things down, but in doing so they’ll pick on open three’s, which Hofstra is prone to allowing. Hofstra’s attack is a little more conventional—they don’t do anything outlandish, but they control the ball and score efficiently. Northeastern’s defense isn’t as bad as Hofstra’s, but it definitely isn’t good. Based on where the total stands, the public seems to be overreacting a bit to last night’s ugly offensive performances.
Pick: Over 145 (-110). Medium confidence.
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s – WCC Championship
Even more so than most seasons, games between Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s this year are tempo battles. In the first two matchups, Saint Mary’s controlled it, keeping the game under 60 possessions in both go-rounds. In each, though, Gonzaga had pulled away before the second half hit the ten-minute mark.
Saint Mary’s isn’t as good as most years, but they’ve played better as the year’s gone on. Theoretically, they should be able to give Gonzaga a game. With a 1-seed possibly on the line for the Zags and plenty of time to rest before their first-round game, look for them to get out and run the floor.
With offenses this good, all it should take is about 64 trips up and down the court to hit the over.
Pick: Over 139 (-110). Medium confidence.
