Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident bracketologist, as well as our all-around numbers guy. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 55 picks, but his picks published here and at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 28% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 65% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
I’ll make this quick, because a few of these are about to tip off. Lines, as always, come from the Vegas consensus I’m seeing online.
There are three games where it makes sense to take a near-tossup underdog on the moneyline. No promises with these, but with two of them, both KenPom and BPI favor the underdog, and with the third, UNLV is playing on their home court, which, while adjusted for the conference tournament, is still worth something. Again, no promises, but if you make enough plays where the moneyline gives you a positive expected value, you’ll come out ahead.
Here are those:
UNLV vs. San Diego State – Mountain West Conference Tournament
Pick: UNLV to win +115. Low confidence.
Colorado vs. Oregon State – Pac-12 Conference Tournament
Pick: Colorado to win +125. Low confidence.
St. Joseph’s vs. Duquesne – Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament
Pick: Duquesne to win +115. Low confidence.
For the last pick, I like an over. Illinois is playing with nothing to lose. Iowa is playing with a lot to lose, and should have a big sense of urgency about them. Both teams are on the faster side when it comes to tempo. It’s a high total, but don’t let that scare you away. It isn’t a high-confidence play, but it lines up well mathematically.
Illinois vs. Iowa – Big Ten Conference Tournament
Pick: Over 154 (-110). Low confidence.
