Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,383 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Our World Cup future for tonight (unit context is that our portfolio started with fifty units available):
2022 World Cup
What’s Japan’s path from here? With a win over Costa Rica, all Japan would need would be Germany to not beat Spain (and for a few other things to not happen in conjunction with that) to advance to the knockout round, from which they’re currently likeliest to play Belgium. Adding that all together, these odds appear longer than they’ll be, piece by piece. Japan’s a big favorite over Costa Rica. Spain vs. Germany is a tossup. Opportunity abounds.
Pick: Japan to advance to quarterfinals +350. Low confidence.
