Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,391 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Tonight’s World Cup future, and the unit context here is that we started the tournament with fifty units in our portfolio and we had eight units down entering tonight:
2022 World Cup
By taking care of business against Saudi Arabia, Poland has given themselves a great shot at reaching the knockout stage, and although their likely opponent there is France, getting Poland for that matchup at 4-to-1 odds isn’t bad, especially when factoring in the possibility that Poland manages to tie Argentina on Wednesday, which is low but certainly not zero.
Pick: Poland to advance to quarterfinal +400. Low confidence.
