Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,387 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Tonight’s World Cup future, and the unit context here is that we started the tournament with fifty units in our portfolio. We had seven units down entering tonight.
2022 World Cup
This is a longshot, and most paths to it hitting rely on Australia upsetting Tunisia here in a few hours. With so much of the available, affordable, temporary value we’re seeing in Saudi Arabia and Iran, though, and with our portfolio already tied to both those countries, this is the best play we’re seeing. We’ll take it and hope to see good news in the morning.
Pick: Australia to advance to knockout stage +750. Low confidence.
