1. This is so much fun right now.
I know this might not last forever. I know the Cubs aren’t even alone in first. I know the Cubs are still expected to finish behind the Brewers, using math and that sort of thing.
But man, this is a good time right now.
2. Sergio Alcántara is doing good stuff.
We were a little worried about the xwOBA, but the nice thing about small sample sizes is that you can hit one home run and—boop—you’re up to at least a .293, which isn’t good but isn’t as bad as 1) it was 2) Eric Sogard’s is (I guess you can think of the DFA considerations as a bear race, meaning you only really care about who’s in last).
3. Bullpen stuff.
Andrew Chafin did have to throw 22 pitches, and Craig Kimbrel did have to come in for a second straight day of work (and third in four days), so there’s a chance at least Kimbrel is down tonight, and possibly both of them. Bummer to let that be the case, but if it is, at least we know they’re both fresh entering the Mets series.
***
Around the Division:
The Reds beat the Rockies and the Brewers beat the Pirates yesterday. The Reds have beaten the Rockies again today, and the Brewers are up on the Pirates in the seventh as this is typed. If that holds, here are the standings entering tonight (check tomorrow’s post for an update to the division championship probabilities):
1. Milwaukee: 38-27
2. Cubs: 37-27
3. Cincinnati: 32-31
4. St. Louis: 32-32
5. Pittsburgh: 23-40
*laughs a little at the Cardinals falling past the Reds*
*face turns serious, starts looking at the Reds’ upcoming schedule*
*mildly relieved as the Reds play the Brewers and Padres this week, and since we’re on the topic the Brewers also play the Rockies and the Cardinals play Miami and Atlanta*
Up Next:
Game 3
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Whom:
Cubs vs. St. Louis
When:
6:08 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Wind’s moving throughout the game but isn’t very strong, and is generally blowing either out to left or from right to left. Neutral-to-good for hitting the ball to left, neutral-to-bad for going to right. Temperatures falling past 80 as the game goes on.
Starting Pitchers:
Zach Davies vs. Carlos Martínez
The Opponent:
Martínez’s 6.21 ERA is eye-popping, but he does have just a 4.24 FIP. That said, he’s got a 5.71 xERA, and FIP and xERA are comparably predictive of one’s performance the next year, which means they’re probably comparably indicative of Martínez’s performance so far, which means Martínez has probably been about a 5.00-quality pitcher, which isn’t great. This Cardinals rotation is in trouble, and if they lose tonight they’re under .500 and in fourth place, which isn’t really a spot from which one improves their fatal flaw.
The Numbers:
Cubs are a -125 favorite, with the Cardinals at +115. That comes out to about a 53% chance of a win. Over/under’s at 9½ and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
Javy Báez has been scratched with a thumb issue that’s being attributed to his attempt at a foul ball in the stands in the ninth inning yesterday. The line is that the Cubs don’t want it to linger, which implies Báez could play but the Cubs don’t want to push it with him. Hopefully it goes away quickly. Unclear, to me at least, whether it’s the same hand that was having trouble earlier this week.
Kohl Stewart was optioned to AAA before the game yesterday, with Trevor Megill brought up to take his spot. This means that, barring injury, Stewart won’t be making his start the next time through and the Cubs will be going with Alec Mills and/or a bullpen game for part of the Mets series, with Trevor Williams’s return a possibility but not sounding all that likely. As of right now, it looks like Jake Arrieta on Tuesday and Kyle Hendricks on Thursday, with Monday and Wednesday the question marks.
Cubs Thoughts:
The longer the Cubs hold even with the Brewers (or pull ahead of them, in the ideal case) during this tough stretch, the more ground they gain probability-wise. And don’t discount the upside of helping force the Cardinals out of contention. That would do a lot for this franchise as the deadline approaches.
