Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,799 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 3% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Our college football plays for today are in yesterday’s bets. Here are some on the hardwood:
Southern @ Tulane
Tulane struggled in its opener, mostly by letting Southeastern Louisiana attempt 22 free throws. Beyond that, they were fine, and while Southern was among the nation’s best last year at getting to the line, a one-game sample is probably being overamplified here.
Pick: Tulane -12.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
North Carolina A&T @ Jacksonville
North Carolina A&T took down UNC-Greensboro on Tuesday night despite missing 18 threes (on 20 attempts). It was impressive, in an odd way, but while Jacksonville will need to protect the ball better than UNCG did, NC A&T’s difficulty scoring might be a bigger issue.
Pick: Jacksonville +2.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
South Alabama @ Wichita State
Wichita State needed a long, long Tyson Etienne three in the closing seconds to hold off Jacksonville State on Tuesday, which seems to have folks down on the Shockers. First of all, it was just one game. Second of all, South Alabama’s nowhere near as good as their fellow regional Yellowhammer State public school.
Pick: Wichita State -12 (-110). Medium confidence.
Eastern Kentucky @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee
I’m not sure the market has fully grasped how good Milwaukee should be this year. In the mid-to-low-major ranks, Patrick Baldwin makes a big difference, and the Panthers returned some weapons, too.
Pick: Wisconsin-Milwaukee -4.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
