The Panthers took care of business for us. The Phillies and Nationals did not.
More MLB moneyline action today, the Rockies, our weekday MLB futures, and our daily NBA playoff futures.
Philadelphia at Miami
Regular readers know how much we love FanGraphs’s models. Unfortunately, we’re not getting many moneyline wins right now with our heavily FanGraphs-reliant approach. We didn’t get many last year, either. So, we’re backtracking a little further into our history and returning to a test we did in 2022: What happens if we focus on “spots,” instances where a team is well-positioned for a specific game?
Our 2022 test was successful, but the sample was very small. It was also old, and markets change over time. Still, it’s at least worth a little shot. In about a month and a half, we can switch to Heat Index, which worked so well last year. But we need to get through the next six weeks or so.
In this one, the Phillies discourse involves a lot of angst but the team hasn’t been playing poorly. They just took two of three from the Cubs and swept a good Blue Jays team who’s been hot. That doesn’t make us think they’re on fire or anything, but we don’t need to red-flag them. It’s easy to undervalue how well Ranger Suárez has pitched since coming of the IL in May. It’s also easy to overvalue fringe prospect Adam Mazur, making his second attempt in the big leagues after a rough go of it last year with the Padres. The back end of the Phillies’ bullpen should be fresh. The Phillies should win tonight.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –159. 15.00 units to win 9.43. Suárez and Mazur must start.
San Diego at Los Angeles
In Los Angeles, markets seem aggressive here. Again, there’s a bit of a calamity narrative around the Padres, and I wonder if that’s playing into this. They’ve lost two series in a row. Before that, they’d won three and split one. This might be a team regressing, but it isn’t a team in freefall.
Is Stephen Kolek regressing? Probably. But again, the best parts of the Padres’ bullpen are relatively fresh. The best parts of the Dodgers’ bullpen are not as they enter their third straight bullpen game. The bats are good enough that it’s fair to favor the home team, and Justin Wrobleski—a likely bulk reliever—isn’t as bad as his ERA. But 37% isn’t a hard bar to clear. We’ll roll the dice and try an extra play.
Pick: San Diego to win +171. 15.00 units to win 25.65. Kolek and Sheehan must start.
Colorado at Washington
We’ll play this anti-Rockies run line strategy out through the end of the series, but unless we win both today and tomorrow, we’re probably going to wave the white flag ahead of this weekend. We’ll keep evaluating, but we’re afraid the Rockies are not quite as numbers-defying in their badness as we had hoped. Earlier this year, they were. We were late to the party.
Pick: Washington –1.5 (+130). 15.00 units to win 19.50.
NL Central
Some books are slow to react to the Cubs’ win over the Brewers last night. Combined with the Cardinals’ recent skid, this is creating a little bit of value. Our portfolio’s still slightly unprofitable if current favorites win their divisions. Aside from the Reds, the Cubs are the most unprofitable outcome for us in the NL Central. This is worth the units for us.
Pick: Chicago to win –400. 4.00 units to win 1.00.
NBA Finals
The series/game odds split we’ve been mentioning continues. Game 6 moneyline markets imply a 68% chance the Thunder win Game 6, which implies an 83% chance the Thunder win Game 7 if Game 7 happens. That implies a 5% chance the Pacers win the series. Finals series odds imply a 9% chance the Pacers win the series. There is enough space here to cover the vig.
As we’ve said, moneylines are more accurate than series odds, and while there’s some uncertainty about Tyrese Haliburton’s injury and some potential shifts to Pacers perceptions, they’re accurate enough that we trust the Thunder are undervalued, even at 1-to-16. Is a potential 6.25% return worth the risk, especially when it’d be more fun to cheer for the Pacers to come back? You have to decide that for yourself. For us, down 324.21 units on the year, it’s worth it. Beggars can’t be choosers.
Here are our 200-unit portfolio’s new overall scenarios, given what’s been bet so far. We’ve made 73.77 units on completed bets. We have 80.77 units still available. We now have 193 units pending: 128 on the Thunder, 26 on the Pacers, and 39 on the series to finish in six games.
| Winner | Games | Total |
| Thunder | 6 | 107.21 |
| Thunder | 7 | 54.03 |
| Pacers | 7 | -13.31 |
Pick: Oklahoma City to win –1600. 26.00 units to win. 1.63.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –324.21 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 388 single-game markets plus two completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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