Every one of our portfolio’s preferences lost last night. But! Last year, every one of our portfolio’s preferences won the Wild Card Series, and we got smoked at the end of October. Maybe this time we’ll be the ones doing the smoking.
AL Wild Card Series: Cleveland vs. Detroit
This is pretty narrowly positive value, but it’s the only positive value that clearly helps our portfolio as a whole. Casey Mize has been undervalued all year.
Pick: Detroit to win –300. 6.00 units to win 2.00.
Game 2: Detroit at Cleveland
Again: Casey Mize has been undervalued all year.
Pick: Detroit to win +118. 2.34 units to win 2.76. Mize and Bibee must start.
Cincinnati at Los Angeles
We’ve given up on expecting regression from Zack Littell, but this is a bigger mismatch than even these extreme odds imply. The Dodgers should handle business tonight. Yamamoto’s even better than Snell.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –263. 7.25 units to win 2.76. Littell and Yamamoto must start.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –422.67 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 805 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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