We’ve gotten away from overs a little the last few days. Some of this has been intentional—we’re no longer prioritizing searching for those, as our Pythagorean win–loss on them returns to a number closer to .500—but we also just haven’t seen as much opportunity on overs in the market. Does this mean we feel really, really good about the one we’ve got tonight? Sadly, no. It’s just the best option we could find.
Florida Atlantic at UAB
This is lower than kenpom or Bart Torvik has it. Why? I think it’s because FAU’s slowed down a little since starting conference play. They haven’t slowed down that much, though, and I don’t know that they have the personnel to slow down Yaxel Lendeborg, who scored 22 against the Owls in January on only 13 attempts from the floor.
Pick: Over 161.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Queens at Lipscomb
Over in the ASUN, we like Lipscomb to cover. Kenpom only has the number at ten, but Lipscomb has a bad home-court advantage in kenpom’s algorithm, and conference tournaments at these lower levels often come with bigger crowds. Add in Lipscomb’s experience and the potential neutralization of Malcolm Wilson—a great shot-blocker who should be less relevant with Jacob Ognacevic & Co. shooting so much from the outside—and we’re not seeing anything we like more than this as our second play.
Pick: Lipscomb –9.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –61.27 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –3% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 120 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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