We got slapped around a little on Sunday, including in our miniature college basketball futures portfolio, where SMU went down. It might be time for baseball to start. But until it does…two more for tonight:
Chattanooga at Bradley
This line’s been wobbling, probably as bettors try to estimate the effect of Darius Hannah’s injury on the Braves. One thing to note: Corey Thomas, who got a lot of minutes Sunday, grades out on EvanMiya as Bradley’s best defensive player.
That, though, can be overstated. Thomas might be the best on defense, but per EvanMiya, he’s only 0.26 points better per 100 possessions than Hannah. On offense, he’s only 0.68 points worse. This isn’t nothing, and with Thomas not the only player filling in for Hannah, others shake the line as well. But compared to kenpom predictions, we’re seeing overs hit by an average of six points per game in this NIT. That’s a big number, and we’re skeptical of it as well, but at this point, it’s the best thing we have to go off of. This number is higher than the kenpom total, but there should be enough cushion to absorb Hannah’s absence.
Pick: Over 152 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
North Texas at Oklahoma State
Here too, we prefer the over rather than the spread. As a gut check: Kenpom has this as a 65-possession game. That’d be Oklahoma State’s second-slowest of the season. It’d be North Texas’s fastest in two months. That’s extreme for both, but…we’re dealing with extreme teams?
Again, we’re just taking the kenpom total and adding six. Maybe that’s overly simplistic. It’s the best we can offer.
Pick: Over 136.5 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
NIT
Our probabilities show value on UC Irvine, Bradley, and Kent State. Bradley’s pretty hurt right now, and recently hurt, so we’re not going to chase them. We already have Kent State at 200-to-1, so we won’t be adding them either. We’ll happily take the favorite at this price, bringing our total potential +/– to…
- If Chattanooga wins: +209.0 units
- If Kent State wins: +167.0 units
- If UC Irvine wins: +13.5 units
- If anybody else wins: –34.0 units
For whatever it’s worth, the –20 units from SMU are already included in our numbers below.
Pick: UC Irvine to win +375. 10.00 units to win 37.50.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –240.67 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 226 single-game markets, one half-completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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