We had a great night last night, but not in the most encouraging fashion. We went 9–2 on our NIT and NCAA Tournament picks, but in our higher-confidence quartet, we only went 2–2. What to make of that? We don’t necessarily understand what’s working.
Our process for these is fairly straightforward: We reference kenpom and Nate Silver’s probabilities. We take some guesses as to which conferences might be over and undervalued, partly based on Ken Pomeroy’s post on the SEC being overrated and partly based on our own small-sample study from the NIT so far. We check for injuries. If we don’t like one side of the spread, we take the over, guessing that the NIT pulverizing overs might point towards Wilson having figured out the inflation situation with the ball. If it’s a slew of unders, we are going to have a very bad day, and that is a very possible thing that could happen. If it’s a slew of overs, we’re going to have a great day. Thankfully, that’s very possible too.
We’ll include our one college basketball future for the day at the bottom.
Louisville vs. Creighton
We think both the ACC and Big East might be underrated, so with this line virtually matching both kenpom’s and Silver’s, it’s the over.
Pick: Over 145.5 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Purdue vs. High Point
Kenpom and Silver are split on this spread. Since it’s one of the bigger kenpom/market gaps for a total today, we’re making it one of our four bigger picks.
Pick: Over 152.5 (–110). 15.00 units to win 13.64.
Wisconsin vs. Montana
Another where Silver and kenpom are split. We do think the Big Sky might be overrated, but we aren’t confident enough in that to make up for what Silver has as a 3.5-point gap.
Pick: Over 152 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Houston vs. SIU Edwardsville
This is one where kenpom and Silver agree, and kenpom is making no adjustment for J’Wan Roberts not playing at 100%. It gives us the heebie-jeebies, but we’re trusting our process.
Pick: SIU Edwardsville +28.5 (–115). 5.00 units to win 4.35.
Auburn vs. Alabama State
Same story as Houston, minus the injury.
Pick: Alabama State +32.5 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Clemson vs. McNeese
One thing to mention here: We tend to think mid-majors aren’t as affected as high-majors by having a coach involved in the coaching search. Ed Cooley’s Providence crashed at the end. Iowa State, Mississippi, and Texas A&M all stumbled during the early days of Indiana’s search. North Texas won the NIT and Indiana State was the runner-up the next year. Very anecdotal take.
The Kenpom/Silver combo would suggest taking McNeese but we think the ACC is underrated.
Pick: Over 133.5 (–112). 5.00 units to win 4.46.
BYU vs. VCU
We’re worried about the A-10 being overrated, but we aren’t confident enough about it to take the Cougars. We also wonder if the Cougars could have some of the same elevation quirkiness as the Mountain West, but we think that phenomenon depends on conference drift more than individual teams, so we’re holding off on it.
Pick: Over 147 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Gonzaga vs. Georgia
Early NIT indications suggest the WCC might be underrated, but that would imply Gonzaga’s a top-five team, which seems like a stretch. Silver and kenpom lean towards Georgia here.
Pick: Over 151 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Tennessee vs. Wofford
Here’s another where kenpom and Silver indicate the market is too high on the heavy favorite. Given we also suspect the SEC’s overrated, that makes it straightforward, but we’re wary enough to keep it a small-unit bet rather than one of our four big-unit ones for the day.
Pick: Wofford +18.5 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Kansas vs. Arkansas
This is one of our bigger ones. Kenpom and Silver are split, but with the Thiero injury not fully represented in kenpom and with his suspicions (and, as lemmings, ours) that the SEC is overrated, we like the Jayhawks. This is also right around the peak in the final score curve. The plurality of games involving Division I teams this year have ended with a five-point margin. Normalized distribution curves, which can sometimes help minimize absolute error, are prone to overestimating the number of games which end within five points.
Pick: Kansas –5 (–107). 15.00 units to win 14.02.
Texas A&M vs. Yale
We’re very excited about this line moving up to eight. That’s exactly where kenpom has it, while Silver has it at 6.5. We can fade the SEC without betting against kenpom.
(We don’t dislike the SEC, to be clear. We just think it’s numerically a little overrated.)
Pick: Yale +8 (–120). 15.00 units to win 12.50.
Missouri vs. Drake
This is going to be a big window for us. Lot of eggs in the same basket, all in the early evening slot.
Pick: Drake +6 (–105). 15.00 units to win 14.29.
UCLA vs. Utah State
Silver only has this at UCLA –3.5, while the market has it at UCLA –5. It’s still tempting, but we think the over is the better play.
Pick: Over 144 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
St. John’s vs. Omaha
By our methodology, this is the least confident pick of the day.
Pick: Over 148.5 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Michigan vs. UC San Diego
We’re curious about Sam Walters’s back, but the Big West has looked bad in the NIT so far, and that would track with some talent baselines. Cal State Northridge might not have really been the 118th-best team in the country.
Pick: Michigan –2 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington
To give you an idea of how devoted we are to process with these: We have Texas Tech making the national championship in our own bracket. We’re very high on Texas Tech’s value against casual society. But we like the over more.
Pick: Over 143.5 (–115). 5.00 units to win 4.35.
NIT
The NIT futures odds mostly make sense today, but I don’t think all oddsmakers realize Chattanooga’s playing Dayton at home on Saturday.
Pick: Chattanooga to win +8000. 1.00 unit to win 80.00
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –139.42 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 167 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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