Tough couple losses on the CFP semifinals, one in the close way and one in the “we bet against Curt Cignetti again” way. No NFL futures after all, at least today. We weren’t seeing any value on anyone we don’t already have as a profitable scenario, and while we’re scared of the Rams (unprofitable for us if they win the NFC and/or the Super Bowl), their price might actually get longer by Tuesday depending what else happens this weekend.
So, just two picks for today’s games. And since it’s the playoffs, we’re going back to our old friend FPI.
LA Rams at Carolina
Green Bay at Chicago
These are pretty classic Wild Card lines, and pretty classic lines for games with a lot of recreational money on them. The market’s got the right favorite, but with a little more confidence than it should probably have.
Like the Rams, the Bears are a downside for our futures portfolio, so we could bet them here as part of that effort. We’re not doing that mostly because we don’t see the Bears as a serious threat to win the NFC, and with downside in our portfolio on all three NFC favorites, we don’t want to dig those three holes deeper for the sake of covering an unlikely scenario.
Pick: Carolina +10 (–110). 3.54 units to win 3.22.
Pick: Chicago +2.5 (–115). 3.70 units to win 3.22.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –519.57 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,026 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
