We’re too late today to get F1 and NASCAR down, which is a shame because there was a big inefficiency in the F1 market.
Alas.
The Mariners will simply have to win the World Series.
Nothing new on our MLB futures. Our best outcome is the Mariners winning it all, but our worst outcome is the Dodgers beating the Mariners, which kind of eliminates any hedging angles on the Blue Jays. And since value’s only available on the Mariners, that leaves us out of good options until things simplify.
Just the NFL, then. Sunday Night Football. The undercard to Mariners–Blue Jays.
Atlanta at San Francisco
I hate this pick, but FPI rules our NFL lives, and I do think there’s truth to the angle that the best picks are the ones we hate. With the NFL and this FPI approach, anyway.
Pick: Atlanta +1 (–117). 6.18 units to win 5.28.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –493.35 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 846 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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