Today’s Best Bets: Wheels Are Coming Off

Remarkable stuff from UNC last night.


South Carolina at Texas

This definitely has letdown game potential for Texas, but South Carolina’s showing too many signs of the wheels falling off to trust them within two points of the kenpom line. Hook ‘em.

Pick: Texas –13 (–107). 3.31 units to win 3.09.

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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.

2025–26: –606.68 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)

2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,057 single-game markets plus five completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)

Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)

Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.

These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.

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The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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