We hit our 100th game yesterday bet using this “spot”-based approach, and the results are good. We’re 58–42 against an average line of –119, which—taking out the rounding in that –119—would give us a 6.78% average return on investment. This isn’t at the point of being statistically significant, and we’ve failed to capitalize on the success in any meaningful way unit-wise. But, it’s better than losing, and it makes every day a lot more optimistic.
Kansas City at Chicago (NL)
This isn’t “spot”-based, and it’s not a moneyline, but we do think there’s value here and we’re not going to let it pass. Seth Lugo’s had home run issues. Colin Rea’s been pitching on borrowed time. There’s a heat wave in Chicago and the wind’s supposed to blow out towards left field. It’s a day game.
Pick: Over 10 (–105). 0.91 units to win 0.87.
St. Louis at Colorado
In Colorado, the Cardinals should of course be favored, but Tanner Gordon’s been one of the Rockies’ best starters in his limited opportunities, Andre Pallante’s struggling, and the Cardinals are back in that place where the wheels risk coming all the way off. It doesn’t hurt that getaway days are weird.
Pick: Colorado to win +160. 0.54 units to win 0.86. Pallante and Gordon must start.
New York (AL) at Toronto
And speaking of getaway days: We’re getting relatively long odds here on the Blue Jays to take the series (and clinch the season series) over the Yankees, with an overperforming Chris Bassitt facing a Max Fried who’s 1) cooled off lately and 2) dealing with a blister. Again, the Yankees deserve to be a favorite, but this is a good price. There’s a lot that can go right for us.
Pick: Toronto to win +123. 0.70 units to win 0.86. Fried and Bassitt must start.
World Series
The first of these is unremarkable: There’s narrowly positive value available on the Mets, our portfolio’s become al ittle short on them again, and as a contender, we want them in our mix. The second is a little weirder.
We’re not necessarily buying the Twins. The pieces—Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran, the hard-to-kill Carlos Correa—are there for a sleeper, but this isn’t a good team. What we’re curious about is whether the Tigers might be crumbling. They’ve lost eight of nine and risk a sweep today at the hands of the Pirates. They’ve scored the sixth-fewest runs in the league in July. That bullpen which was such a weapon last year is in the poorer half of baseball in FIP.
We don’t think the Tigers really will fall apart, and if they do, the Guardians are just as likely to take advantage of it as the Twins are (provided the Guards don’t aggressively sell first). But this gives us an angle to extract some value from the possibility. Our futures portfolio isn’t as simple as an attempt to accrue raw value, but that’s the general theme.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +1300. 2.00 units to win 26.00.
Pick: Minnesota to win +12000. 2.00 units to win 240.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –487.27 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 512 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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