Our British Open horses are having a better day today, but there’s still work to do, especially for Ben Griffin. Thankfully (we hope), we can turn our attention back to baseball.
Sacramento at Cleveland
Coming out of the All-Star Break, our baseline expectation is that hot and cold stuff will even out. For a team like the Guardians, that might be welcome. While they entered the break winning six of seven, they lost eleven in a row before that.
At their baseline, the Guards are slightly better than the A’s. Tonight, on a good-weather night in Cleveland, that makes this a solid price. Slade Cecconi and JP Spears aren’t as different as I think some betters are assuming.
Pick: Cleveland to win –127. 0.42 units to win 0.33. Spears and Cecconi must start.
Detroit at Texas
I’m not sure why the market likes Patrick Corbin this much, though maybe part of this is the Tigers entering the break a little cold. The Rangers are 7–10 while Corbin starts. That isn’t bad, and we like Corbin and bet on him in his last start, but there’s nothing magic about Corbin right now, and the Tigers are a good, good ballclub.
Pick: Detroit to win –103. 0.34 units to win 0.33. Olson and Corbin must start.
Minnesota at Colorado
The latest humidor iterations have ironed out home runs at Coors Field, which is playing as only a +3% homer ballpark over the last three years, per Statcast. The problem for Chris Paddack, an extreme fly ball pitcher, is that fly balls can still yield a lot of extra-base hits, especially on that spacious outfield grass.
Pick: Colorado to win +146. 0.22 units to win 0.32. Paddack and Freeland must start.
St. Louis at Arizona
Is Brandon Pfaadt ok? For his last six starts, he has been. For his last four, he’s been straight-up good. We’re going to try to pick one up here before the train catches up.
Pick: Arizona to win –126. 0.41 units to win 0.33. Pallante and Pfaadt must start.
World Series
Hopefully there’s value on new teams on Monday, but to close out this week, it’s more Mariners and…
Pick: Seattle to win +2500. 2.00 units to win 50.00.
NLCS
…more Brewers.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +1400. 2.00 units to win 28.00.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –488.27 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 490 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
