We’ve mostly broken even so far this week, and that’s put us in a position of needing to decide between continuing to build our NFL and college football futures portfolios, continuing to build our MLB futures portfolio, and keeping units a reasonable size on our daily bets. We’re choosing to keep prioritizing those first two. Sometime next week, either the Phillies or Tigers should clinch their division. That’ll bring our MLB futures some units back. It’s going to be a lot of this song and dance until the World Series is over, but our best fields historically are NFL futures and MLB futures, so we think this is the best approach given the bankroll we’ve chosen.
A lot of everything today: MLB, college football, and the National Football League. Let’s get to it.
Houston at Toronto
On the spot-based side, we think this is closer to a tossup than markets imply. Cristian Javier’s been solid for the Astros, who’ve been hanging in there this week against Toronto.
Pick: Houston to win +139. 0.21 units to win 0.29. Javier and Gausman must start.
Washington at Miami
We’re in on the Nationals on a spot-based bet too. MacKenzie Gore seems to have pulled it back together after what was looking like a mid-season swoon, and any memories of a Marlins surge are ancient by now.
Pick: Washington to win +102. 0.29 units to win 0.30. Gore and Weathers must start.
Colorado at San Diego
Heat Index is picking against cold teams today more than it’s picking hot teams. This is its second choice. The Rockies are, as often is the case, playing worse than anyone else in the sport.
Pick: San Diego to win –240. 0.52 units to win 0.22. Brown and Vásquez must start.
Anaheim at Seattle
Here’s Heat Index’s first choice. The Angels are playing worse than anyone besides the Rockies.
Pick: Seattle to win –148. 0.32 units to win 0.22. Soriano and Miller must start.
AFC South
Starting on the division side: This is a good price. The Texans still looked really flawed last week. The Colts will look flawed soon, but this division could be a mess. More on it later.
Pick: Indianapolis to win +260. 2.00 units to win 5.20.
NFC West
We aren’t going to put two units on this one, but the 49ers as anything other than the favorite in the NFC West is still probably a good play, even with the injuries already piling up.
Pick: San Francisco to win +185. 1.00 unit to win 1.85.
AFC East
This is a longshot. We can’t stress that enough. But FPI likes the value, FPI has served us well, and the Bills defense is bad enough and the Jets’ schedule is easy enough that if you squint and then squint again, you can kind of see a path.
Pick: NY Jets to win +2400. 1.00 unit to win 24.00.
AFC
More longshots here. We like getting potential division champions at good value, and as we said above, the AFC South should be a mess. We already have a couple units on the Chargers to win the division, so we won’t get more aggressive here.
Pick: LA Chargers to win +900. 1.00 unit to win 9.00.
Pick: Jacksonville to win +3000. 1.00 unit to win 30.00.
Pick: Indianapolis to win +3000. 1.00 unit to win 30.00.
NFC
Again, we aren’t going to go too hard on the 49ers, but we will give the Commanders the two-unit treatment. They’re a contender. Not a favorite, but a contender.
Pick: Washington to win +1100. 2.00 units to win 22.00.
Pick: San Francisco to win +900. 1.00 unit to win 9.00.
Super Bowl
The Ravens, meanwhile, are among the favorites. We probably could’ve done more here, but the value is only good, not great.
Pick: Baltimore to win +650. 2.00 units to win 13.00.
Washington at Green Bay
Using a broad brush for home-field advantage, we find FPI to like the Packers tonight. Should the short week affect our assessment? Probably, but we try to keep it simple here. Simple worked really well last year on Thursday nights.
Pick: Green Bay –3 (–117). 0.25 units to win 0.21.
College Football Playoff
There’s a lot of Big Ten in this week’s assortment. What should we make of that? Markets, like seemingly everybody, are overrating Penn State. Penn State should make the playoff, but they’re not a foregone conclusion. That’s opening up value on a lot of other teams.
(We’re still very high on Mississippi. Especially on their ceiling. Not a great showing against Kentucky, but good enough not to sell.)
Pick: Oregon to make playoff –300. 3.00 units to win 1.00.
Pick: Mississippi to make playoff +225. 1.00 unit to win 2.25.
Pick: USC to make playoff +325. 1.00 unit to win 3.25.
Pick: Illinois to make playoff +550. 1.00 unit to win 5.50.
Pick: Indiana to make playoff +550. 1.00 unit to win 5.50.
NC State at Wake Forest
There are two routes I think you can go here. The first is to say, “It’s a short week and unders keep hitting and the total spiked today,” and go bet the under. The second is to say, “It’s a short week and Wake Forest has had an easier schedule and therefore more space to prepare and NC State should win but they aren’t really a blowout–win program,” and take Wake Forest to cover. We’re going to go both directions, though we’ll caveat that the second probably isn’t as convincing as the first.
Pick: Under 53 (–107). 0.12 units to win 0.11.
Pick: Wake Forest +7 (+100). 0.11 units to win 0.11.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –485.68 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 720 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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