Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,402 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks against the spread.
Just MLB futures today, and no hedges, as we let the AL East run again and see what the day holds. For unit context: We began the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio (20 per week, 4 per weekday), plus an extra 520 in reserve for hedges.
ALCS
FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds, our guiding light on these, have the Blue Jays more likely to win the World Series than the Yankees right now. This, despite the Yankees still largely projected to get to play the winner of the 3/6 Wild Card Series in the ALDS.
The Yankees are just really banged up, and while the Blue Jays feel like they’re always not quite tapping into their talent, they’re too good a team on paper to pass this up.
Pick: Toronto to win +900. Medium confidence.
NLCS
For a few weeks now, we’ve been in a mode of prioritizing value over portfolio diversity. Depth over breadth. We’re still mostly doing that, but we’re starting to pivot a little bit today. There’s better value on the Padres to win the World Series, but we’re in deep enough on that for it to be an outcome that makes us profitable all-time, diminishing our practical utility from those units. We’ve been low on the NLCS side all year. If current odds and probabilities hold, we’ll probably beef it up a little more these next couple weeks.
Pick: San Diego to win +1400. Medium confidence.
