Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,117 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks.
One MLB moneyline today, two MLB futures. College football and NFL futures for the week will be handled tomorrow.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 90–62–4, we’re up 20.00 units, we’re up 13% (the average line on our winners has been –110).
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 81.41 units, or 10.9%.
Philadelphia @ San Diego
Normally, we wouldn’t bet against Michael Wacha, but Zack Wheeler’s season is going too unappreciated on all fronts, something not unusual over the last six years. Even with Trea Turner on paternity leave, we’ll take the Phils to win a series out west before the off day tomorrow.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –110. Low confidence. (Wheeler and Wacha must start.)
ALCS
This is still the top value on the board today, with the Twins probably extinguishing any remaining realistic risk they’d miss the playoffs by clinching this series from the Guardians last night. Minnesota is now roughly 99% likely to play in October, and they’ll open with a home series.
Pick: Minnesota to win +1200. Medium confidence.
World Series
The Astros continue to have a great week as well, with a lot of help from the Reds beating the Mariners twice so far in Cincinnati. This flips Houston to a profitable scenario for us in the World Series market, which makes them profitable in all three of their markets. That’s a huge shift from where things stood six weeks ago, which is a good example in how quickly these portfolios’ shapes can change.
Pick: Houston to win +700. Medium confidence.
