Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 495 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, Sagarin, Massey Ratings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Minnesota @ Boston
José Berríos is having the best season of his career. He’s on pace to hit 200 innings on the nose. He’s got a 3.57 ERA. He’s already posted 3.8 fWAR. And he’s likely going to be the Twins’ Game One starter come playoff time.
Berríos, 25, has long been exciting to Twins fans. After a brutal entrance to the big leagues in 2016 (an 8.20 ERA on a 6.20 FIP over 14 starts), he came back from the minors in 2017 to post a sub-four ERA, something he’s consistently done ever since. He isn’t a Cy Young contender, but with the MLB’s second-best offense (by wRC+), the Twins don’t need him to be.
The Twins will be an underdog in the AL in October, but just because they don’t boast the Yankees’ mighty bullpen or the Astros’ mighty everything doesn’t mean they aren’t a very good team. They’ve got the third-highest fWAR among both position players and pitchers, and they’ve got the fourth-highest winning percentage in baseball, which this late in the season means quite a lot. Yes, they’ve feasted on the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers, but the Yankees have feasted on the Orioles and Blue Jays. And while Berríos doesn’t measure up to Gerrit Cole or Justin Verlander down in Houston, a team could do worse when looking for an ace.
Pick: Minnesota to win (+130). Low confidence.
Anaheim @ Oakland
Angels rookie Patrick Sandoval came to the organization last year from Houston in the Martín Maldonado deal, quickly endearing himself within the Anaheim farm system with a 0.79 ERA and 2.05 FIP across seven starts at the High-A and AA levels.
This year, he’s earned chances in the majors, and while he’s suffered a 5.24 ERA to this point, his FIP’s been a stately 3.31. His opponents’ average exit velocity has been 85.9 mph, decidedly better than the MLB average, and his strikeout rate would rank in the MLB’s top 20 if he had a qualifying number of innings.
His MLB career is only five outings old, and he’s walking too many batters (10.1% of them, a number better than only four of the 67 qualifying pitchers). Still, there’s reason to be excited about the 22-year-old lefty.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Colorado @ Los Angeles
Hyun-Jin Ryu’s ERA has skyrocketed over his last three starts. It stands 62% taller than it did halfway through August, now at a brutal…2.35.
Yes, while Ryu’s regressed a bit towards his FIP, he’s still gotten extraordinary results this year. And just because he’s outperforming his FIP doesn’t mean that FIP is bad. At 3.17, it’s eighth among qualified pitchers.
Ryu’s problems lately have come via an increase in BABIP, an increase in home runs, and a decrease in LOB rate. BABIP and LOB rate are areas in which he was expected to regress, and home runs happen rarely enough that they’re prone to spikes in small sample sizes, especially when one faces the Braves and Yankees (sixth and second in home runs, respectively) in back-to-back starts. And while Ryu’s innings total is the highest it’s been since 2013, his first year in the majors, reflecting a return to full-strength after missing significant time due to injury, there isn’t a logical reason to be concerned about it at this point. His velocity has stayed roughly constant all year, actually rising slightly as the season’s gone on. His spin rates have behaved similarly. Nothing much has changed with regard to his pitches’ movement. Perhaps hitters are “figuring him out,” or he’s lost a bit of command, but his exit velocities haven’t even been particularly high over the recent stretch.
Yes, Ryu’s performance has not been as good these last three starts. No, it isn’t much cause for worry.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-115). Low confidence.
