Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,075 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 4% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 4%’s into a whole lot more than 4% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
Some futures in addition to the game picks. Odds for the futures come from Bovada due to the absence of a current Vegas Consensus online.
Cincinnati @ Atlanta
Over the course of the regular season, three teams managed a wRC+ of 120 or better. The Dodgers and Mets (wild, right?) led the league in a tie at 122. Atlanta was next, at 121.
A large portion of this was Freddie Freeman’s dominant campaign. The first baseman played in every game, posting a 187 wRC+ second only to Juan Soto. Marcell Ozuna wasn’t far behind, also playing in every game and clocking the next-best wRC+ behind that of Freeman, a 179. Ronald Acuña Jr.? Eleventh in the MLB, at 159.
The Reds had just one qualified hitter with a wRC+ better than Atlanta’s entire team’s wRC+. Trevor Bauer’s 2.88 FIP is great, but only 22 points better than Max Fried’s 3.10.
There’s value here, both on the over and the moneyline.
Pick: Atlanta to win -125. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105). Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ Cleveland
Cleveland’s facing elimination. The Yankees looked like a force last night.
The Yankees are, indeed, a force, but Masahiro Tanaka isn’t as good as Carlos Carrasco, and he’s nowhere near the quality of Gerrit Cole. Last night’s game was an important game, but it was still just one game. It doesn’t have any statistical impact on what happens tonight.
Pick: Cleveland +1.5 (-155). Low confidence.
NL Wild Card Series: Milwaukee @ Los Angeles
Corbin Burnes’s injury is certainly damaging to Milwaukee’s hopes. Their chances of advancing past the Dodgers are just 30%, compared to 33% in the hypothetical where Burnes’s oblique remained unstrained. Still, that 30% is promising against these odds, and Brent Suter, though no Burnes, is good enough to give them a chance in the opener, especially if Daniel Vogelbach’s hamstring holds up (that hamstring may be worth as much as half a run per game), which looks hopeful with him at least on the roster.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +320. Low confidence.
World Series Future
There are a lot of factors contributing to Atlanta’s undervaluing here.
For one thing, the rotation may be better than it appears. Yes, it’s thin, but Ian Anderson has performed admirably, Kyle Wright’s entering the playoffs coming off three straight quality starts, and Bryse Wilson’s .348 BABIP is likely to drop.
For another, there’s a favorable path on Atlanta’s side of the bracket. While the Reds constitute a tough first round draw, both the Cubs and the Marlins are among the half of NL playoff teams one would prefer to play.
Finally, there appears to be something of a market misconception about the quality of the American League. Yes, the AL has seven teams that are quite good on paper—all AL playoff teams besides Toronto line up better than half the NL’s playoff qualifiers. But no team in the AL is as good as Los Angeles, Atlanta, or San Diego. On paper, Atlanta’s the second-best team in Major League Baseball.
Pitching’s important. But so is hitting.
Pick: Atlanta to win +1400. Low confidence.
