Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,005 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
San Francisco @ Colorado
Blowouts like last night’s are rare enough in baseball that it’s hard to even look for evidence of a hangover effect. Even if there is one for the Giants today, this line leaves some cushion such that it’s still a good play.
Pick: San Francisco +1.5 (-150). Low confidence.
Detroit @ Milwaukee
The Tigers are two games back of the Twins for third in the AL Central, three and a half back of the division lead, and half a game back of the Blue Jays for the final playoff spot in the American League.
No, they’re not as good as their record suggests, but they’re still better than they’re expected to be, and there’s about a one-in-three chance they find the playoffs.
Against Adrian Houser, who’s struggled more than his ERA lets on, these are solid odds.
Pick: Detroit +1.5 (-140). Low confidence.
San Diego @ Anaheim
The wind’s blowing out, you’re facing Fernando Tatís Jr. and Manny Machado, and you have a 9.17 ERA.
It’s not a fun time to be Julio Teherán.
Pick: Over 9.5 (+100). Low confidence.
