Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,560 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.1% isn’t much, but it’s positive, and you can do things with positive.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
A pair of futures today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Moneyline Parlay
The Padres are not competitive right now. The Diamondbacks are not competitive right now. The Orioles are competitive, but the market seems to be overweighting Nathan Eovaldi’s last start. The odds aren’t great here, but there’s some evidence to suggest final-week games like this are oddly unfaithful to the fundamentals.
Boston, Los Angeles, and San Francisco to all win +151. Low confidence.
Philadelphia @ Atlanta
Like last night, the gap between Philadelphia’s starter and Atlanta’s is real but probably overstated.
Going off of that, the strength of both pitchers seems to have led to some market-wide groupthink here. The number isn’t that high, and the offenses are more capable than they showed yesterday.
Pick: Atlanta to win -145. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 8 (-115). Low confidence.
San Diego @ Los Angeles
Ryan Weathers has been lights out in his new, shorter-outing role. From him, the Padres bullpen will take over, and they’re strong. And on the other side, Max Scherzer’s always a good bet to do some extinguishing, with the Dodgers still in the NL West race enough to lean on their bullpen.
Pick: Under 8 (-110). Low confidence.
NLCS Champion
We continue to lean on an Atlanta team that has nearly wrapped up its division, something the market has yet to accept.
Pick: Atlanta to win +700. Low confidence.
ALCS Champion
This shows, in part, how ridiculous the Atlanta odds are. We’re taking a Wild Card team to win the pennant, and they’re at shorter odds than a division winner in the other league.
These odds are favorable, and this fills a good role in helping us keep a high-upside team in our pocket even if the Red Sox crash out of the field.
Pick: New York to win +650. Low confidence.
