Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,522 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% across 871 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Just MLB futures today. For unit context on these: We started the season with 520 units in the portfolio for weekday futures picks (4 units a day, 5 days a week) and an additional 520 in reserve for hedges.
ALCS
This flips the Mariners back to an all-time profitability route for us, should they win it all and everything else break even. It’s not the best value on the board, but Seattle’s got a 999-in-1,000 chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs, so while they’ve slumped recently, it’s mostly a matter of time. Another consequence of the slump? They’re likelier to avoid the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series and the Astros in a potential Division Series. They’d rather be the 4-seed and have home field, but if choosing between the 5-seed and 6-seed in this year’s AL, you want the 6-seed.
Pick: Seattle to win +1000. Medium confidence.
World Series
With no other value available on teams who don’t already provide routes to all-time profitability, we’re hitting the best value out there with this one. That value’s available on the Padres, who have a tough path but still boast a top-five roster on paper. Aside from the trade deadline and the Fernando Tatís Jr. drama, it’s been a quiet year in San Diego. That doesn’t mean this team isn’t good.
Pick: San Diego to win +3300. Medium confidence.
