Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,871 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +1.6% across 2,368 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we primarily use our own model. For NFL bets, we lean on ESPN’s FPI.
Active markets today: Single-game MLB and MLB futures. Here’s the context on each market:
MLB moneylines: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%. We’re 169–149–4 so far this year, down 12.16 units. It’s been a bad showing.
MLB futures: In four of the five years we’ve done these, we’ve profited, twice by large margins. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays throughout the regular season. Now that division futures have begun paying out, we’re doing it on weekends as well.
Tampa Bay @ Detroit
Five days left of these. We’re still hitting the angle where we think the market’s overvaluing the hottest team. The sample on that approach is small, but the results have been bad.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +112. Low confidence. (Littell and Montero must start.)
NLCS
Atlanta’s flashing the most value today in futures markets, and that’s convenient for us. Between this and the next one, this closes a lot of our Mets/Braves gap, though we still would really like the Diamondbacks to hold on to a playoff slot. (We have nearly one thousand more units of upside on the Diamondbacks than we have on either New York or Atlanta.)
Pick: Atlanta to win +1400. Medium confidence.
World Series
This pushes the Yankees to the edge of being an unprofitable scenario, so keep an eye out for something on them tomorrow if the market keeps giving us a positive-value option with them.
Pick: Atlanta to win +2800. Medium confidence.
