Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,048 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 5% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 5%’s into a whole lot more than 5% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
We have a future today, so here’s the obligatory note that the line for that comes from Bovada rather than any Vegas Consensus, due to the difficulty of finding a current Vegas Consensus.
Chicago (AL) @ Cleveland
Lucas Giolito vs. Shane Bieber.
Our model for totals is fairly basic, and one of the basic things about it is that it assumes each starting pitcher will last exactly 5.8 innings. With these two pitchers, of course, the expectation is that more innings will be pitched. So, we changed it to say they’ll throw complete games tonight, and we accounted for Yasmani Grandal’s continued absence, and we factored in that Adam Engel is starting in right instead of Nomar Mazara, and we ignored that as the late innings dawn the wind should be blowing softly out to right field tonight in Cleveland.
And the model still said to take the over.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-120). Low confidence.
Future
There are no tiebreaker games this year due to the immediacy of the Wild Card Series, so if the White Sox and Twins end up tied, head-to-head results will be used to decide the AL Central Champion. And by “used” we mean referenced, at which point the tiebreaking committee will see that the pair split their regular season games and move to intra-division record, where the White Sox have the advantage secured.
In other words, while the Sox’ lead over Cleveland is a smaller-than-three three games, their lead over the Twins is a larger-than-half-a-game half-a-game. It’s effectively one and a half games. And though the Sox do have a tougher next two nights (in Cleveland, while Minnesota hosts Detroit once), the pair’s weekend slates are comparable (the Sox host the Cubs, the Twins host the Reds), the Reds are more likely to have things to play for on Sunday than the Cubs, and the Sox do lead in the all-important loss column.
The odds aren’t amazing here, but they’re favorable, so if you’re looking to round out the division champions chunk of your portfolio and enter the postseason with some futures cash, here’s your best play.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win AL Central -150. Low confidence.
