Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,438 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% across 790 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Just MLB futures today (some things came up this morning, so we’re pushing college football futures back to tomorrow this week), and for unit context on these: We started the season with 520 units available to bet on our two-bets-a-day, five-bets-a-week cadence, with another 520 available in reserve for hedges.
World Series
Two very different picks here.
The first is the Mets. We’ve been on them for a few days now. Should they hold on and win the NL East—and that’s more likely than not—they might enter October as the real World Series favorite, especially with a path for the NL’s two-seed which currently appears to begin with a home series against the Cardinals or Phillies, likely the NL’s two worst playoff teams.
The second is the Brewers. They’re quite the longshot, but these odds are a little off. It should be closer to 100-to-1. They’re only two and a half back of the Phils, who’ve lost five straight, and should they get to October, I don’t personally dislike the chances of a team starting Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes in at least two games per series.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +650. Medium confidence.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +15000. Medium confidence.
