Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,171 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,631 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
One MLB moneyline, two MLB futures, and our NFL futures for the week. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 95–70–5, we’re up 16.67 units, we’re up 10% (the average line on our winners has been –110).
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 110.53 units, or 14.7%.
NFL futures: We began the season with 150 units in our NFL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 100 of those over the season’s eighteen weeks and keep 50 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. With today’s plays, we’ve invested 17 units.
Minnesota @ Cincinnati
We’re a little concerned with this one that Bailey Ober has found it again, after his return from AAA was sharp. Still, the Reds have so much more to play for than the Twins right now, and on a getaway day, we see that working in Cincinnati’s favor. They also have a lot more experience this season playing this early of a start. It’s a lot of little things adding up in favor of the Reds.
Pick: Cincinnati to win –124. Low confidence. (Ober and Greene must start.)
ALCS
There’s good value today on the Blue Jays, who’ve surged into a one-game lead over the playoff cut line, though it’s more like half a game since they don’t hold either tiebreaker. Toronto isn’t assured of a playoff spot, but they’re helped immensely by the fact the Rangers and Mariners play a combined seven more games against one another. The worst case for the Blue Jays there is that they’ll have to go 3–4 over the same stretch to keep pace with the loser of those games.
Pick: Toronto to win +1100. Medium confidence.
World Series
There’s also good value on the Brewers, and while this pushes a few teams into being unprofitable scenarios in our portfolio, that’s going to be the case with just about any positive-value bet today for us. The value’s great, and we need to take that. These guys are going to have a big starting pitching advantage in the Wild Card Series, especially if they avoid the Diamondbacks, which looks likelier by the day.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +2200. Medium confidence.
NFL Playoffs
We like the value on all four of these, even if each outcome is less than 50% probable. The Jets defense should still be very good, their eventual quarterback shouldn’t be worse than Zach Wilson, and they’ve got that win over the Bills in the bank, which is a big deal. They’re tied for 3rd place in the AFC and their next game’s against a Patriots team that’s looked solid so far but lost twice. It’s believable that these guys could find their way into the AFC’s top half.
Similarly believable is any of the Lions, Jaguars, and Eagles missing the playoffs. The Eagles are the stretch here, but 6-to-1 is a longshot in this kind of market, and the Birds haven’t exactly set the world on fire even as they’ve won their first two games. The NFC East isn’t dominant, but it’s tougher than the North and South, and with the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Bills all on the schedule, that makes for a situation where Philadelphia has to outrun teams like New Orleans and Green Bay who are running an easier course.
We have pro-Lions and pro-Jaguars futures out there already, which makes these easier to take. Neither team has looked bad so far, but you could make a case for either flubbing this, and with each receiving so much preseason hype, it tracks that the odds could get wonky.
Pick: New York Jets to make playoffs +350. Low confidence.
Pick: Detroit to miss playoffs +170. Low confidence.
Pick: Jacksonville to miss playoffs +190. Low confidence.
Pick: Philadelphia to miss playoffs +600. Low confidence.
AFC
The Ravens, through injuries and all, look great so far. They’ve already won their toughest division game on paper, and they seem to be humming in multiple aspects of the game. The value’s there, we’ll gladly add it to our mix.
Pick: Baltimore to win +650. Low confidence.
Super Bowl
Similarly, we’re happy to add this one. The Niners have looked better than anyone so far, and that includes the Cowboys, who are allowing an average of five points per game. It’s good to have something on San Francisco.
Pick: San Francisco to win +600. Low confidence.
