Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,138 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks. FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
We have our MLB moneyline for today, and we have our MLB futures for today, and we have our NFL futures for this week. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 94–65–4, we’re up 20.80 units, we’re up 13% (the average line on our winners has been –110).
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 91.32 units, or 12.2%.
NFL futures: We began the season with 150 units in our NFL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 100 of those over the season’s eighteen weeks and keep 50 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. We made five plays last week.
San Diego @ Los Angeles
Blake Snell is good, but he isn’t as good as his ERA indicates. Ryan Pepiot, meanwhile, has been weirdly untouchable. We don’t get it, we don’t trust it to continue, but we also don’t think it has to continue for this to be a good price.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –118. Low confidence. (Snell and Pepiot must start.)
World Series
We’re doubling up on this one, with not much value elsewhere. The price remains good on Atlanta, and we continue to want all that leverage in case the Dodgers get through to the NLCS, which is well more than 50% likely.
Pick: Atlanta to win +300. Medium confidence.
Pick: Atlanta to win +300. Medium confidence.
NFL Playoffs
Every game is worth so much in the NFL, and what we’re seeing this week in a lot of places is that teams who won in Week 1 are valuable and teams who lost are not. The NFC wild card spots are looking open for the taking, and despite our heavy doubts about the Rams, the fact they’ve already got the road win over the Seahawks is a big deal.
Across the league, the Steelers are looking a lot worse than expected. Maybe it was just one game, but it was a bad one game, and with consensus holding that they’re the worst team in their division, we’re comfortable taking this price.
Pick: Los Angeles Rams to make playoffs +275. Low confidence.
Pick: Pittsburgh to miss playoffs –230. Low confidence.
NFC South
Who’s going to win the NFC South? We do not at all know, but we know the Falcons and Saints are trying to do it, and that’s a big part of the battle. They were playing the Panthers, so this has grains of salt, but the Falcons looked strong on defense in Week 1.
Pick: Atlanta to win +175. Low confidence.
AFC
Lost a little in the Aaron Rodgers injury situation is that the Bills played terribly on Monday night. If that’s real, the Dolphins suddenly occupy a great position, with a stepped-back Buffalo and a Rodgers-less New York their primary division competition. Elsewhere, the Jaguars do look poised to walk their way into an AFC South championship. That’s going to set them up well.
Pick: Miami to win +700. Low confidence.
Pick: Jacksonville to win +1200. Low confidence.
Super Bowl
Finally, the Cowboys.
The Cowboys looked really, really good.
The Giants did look bad, but that Cowboys defense appears to be for real, and the offense should be good enough to make them a factor, even if they’ll be fighting with the Eagles for that division.
Pick: Dallas to win +1000. Low confidence.
