Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,554 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% across 899 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Just MLB futures today. Unit context: We started the MLB season with 520 units available to bet on our two-bets-a-day, five-days-a-week cadence, plus another 520 available in reserve for hedges.
Wild Card Series: Toronto vs. Seattle
Seattle’s flashing positive value here, and while they’re a high-upside team for us, Toronto’s upside is higher. So, we’re taking a few units from the Jays and shifting them, with good value, to the Mariners.
Pick: Seattle to win +150. Medium confidence.
Pick: Seattle to win +150. Medium confidence.
Wild Card Series: New York (NL) vs. San Diego
We use two sportsbooks to plumb our futures odds because the variability on futures odds is often high, and we think using two books better reflects what you can find in your respective markets. Between the two books we use, there’s arbitrage available on this series, and with 58 units on one side and 34 on the other, we’re looking at either a 0.1% profit or a 1.6% profit by Sunday night. You can use however many units you want. We’re keeping a lot available for potential hedging on Saturday or Sunday, though we’re erring on the side of caution here.
Pick: New York (NL) to win -170. Medium confidence. x29
Pick: San Diego to win +175. Medium confidence. x17
What are your all’s thoughts on Haaland’s utter dominance in the EPL? How can we get more Americans excited about the Norwegian Michael Jordan? Asking for a friend.
Obviously, the solution is for him to leave soccer for two years to try to make it as a baseball player. (I’ve never watched him play but I see his name a lot and I don’t otherwise see soccer players’ names, pretty much ever.)