Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,307 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 1,730 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
MLB futures, college football futures, and some college football tonight. Our NFL futures for the week will be published tomorrow. Here’s the context on each market.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on those 750 units is 98.14 units, or 13.1%.It was a good first day of the postseason, but there is a long way to go.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. As with the MLB futures, this is circular, but if we use Movelor probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 300 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 33.13 units, or 11.0%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 23–23–1, and 23–21–1 on games involving at least one FBS team. We’re down 2.05 units, and down 4%. That isn’t great, but we’ve been much better the last two weeks, so if you believe in trends, they’re positive.
Wild Card Series: Tampa Bay vs. Texas
All of us—the markets, the models, the narrative—seem to be in agreement that the Rangers’ 1–0 lead is the least safe of the four. They have to face Zach Eflin today, and the Rays were a 99-win team this season. That’s hard. Still, this is a good price, and while we have a bigger liability on the Rays, addressing our Rangers liability even in little bits like this is helpful.
Pick: Texas to win –215. Medium confidence.
Wild Card Series: Minnesota vs. Toronto
We don’t hate the Blue Jays’ chances to get back in this series. They face long odds today, but if they can upset Sonny Gray, they should be favored tomorrow in Game 3. The value is good enough to take it despite the improbability.
Pick: Toronto to win +320. Medium confidence.
Wild Card Series: Milwaukee vs. Arizona
To help cover that Blue Jays potential cost, we’re in doubly on the Diamondbacks. Last night was a great example in how the better starter doesn’t always win, but the Diamondbacks do have the better starter both today and—if relevant—tomorrow, and Devin Williams threw a lot of pitches last night in that failed attempt to keep it close.
Pick: Arizona to win –265. Medium confidence. x2
ALCS
We mentioned our Rangers liability. This helps address it, and we like the value. Baltimore had a great regular season, but it’s fair to still be curious on how long they can keep the magic going. If the Rangers can win this series in two, they’ll be set up well for that ALDS, with Jordan Montgomery lined up to start Games 2 and 5 on normal rest.
Pick: Texas to win +525. Medium confidence.
World Series
And, lastly, for as inevitable as the Phillies looked against the Marlins last night, the Braves have a big advantage headed their way in Game 1 on Saturday in that Zack Wheeler will not be the Phillies’ starter. This has been a good price on Atlanta for a long time. It hasn’t changed yet. This flips one more World Series scenario (Atlanta over Texas) to profitable for us if all Wild Card Series and Division Series futures only break even.
Pick: Atlanta to win +300. Medium confidence.
CFP National Championship
Movelor remains high on Penn State and Ohio State but low on Michigan, which results in a perception of a lot of value here. Do we trust that? Not fully, but we trust it enough, and ahead of what could be an impressive Buckeye win over an undefeated team on Saturday, we’re going to grab this in case the odds shorten.
Pick: Ohio State to win +1000. Low confidence.
Big 12
There’s narrow value on Oklahoma here, and we like Oklahoma’s value over Texas overall, seeing the two as rather similar teams on paper in terms of quality. We’ve got a lot of longshots in the Big 12. Hopefully, this helps anchor us on the right favorite. We’ll get a great idea on Saturday of whether or not that’s the case. Two units.
Pick: Oklahoma to win +200. Low confidence. x2
Big Ten
If Maryland somehow upsets Ohio State, we’ll be glad we have this, and Movelor’s seeing healthy value on it right now. Maryland’s a big unknown, and that means there’s a tiny possibility they are really, really good.
Pick: Maryland to win +5000. Low confidence.
Pac-12
Movelor doesn’t like the price on Washington this week, but it does like Oregon, and that helps us. We’re even on the two in the national picture, but we have more on Washington in the Pac-12. This starts to counter that weight.
Pick: Oregon to win +250. Low confidence.
SEC
More on Alabama, who has so far played like the best team in the SEC, even including that loss to Texas. As with Ohio State, there’s a chance perceptions change regarding the Tide after Saturday’s game.
Pick: Alabama to win +265. Low confidence.
MAC
We have two very long longshots in the MAC, so two units here more than covers those shots downfield. Ohio is the MAC favorite in a lot of places. We love a favorite at good value as much as everybody else.
Pick: Ohio to win +200. Low confidence. x2
Sun Belt
These two give us six profitable options in the Sun Belt, each of whom is still very much in the conference mix. Louisiana could see their odds shorten by a lot after they play Texas State on Saturday.
Pick: Troy to win +550. Low confidence.
Pick: Louisiana to win +1600. Low confidence.
Mountain West
We’ve done this before, but this verges on a free play. Maybe Wyoming works its way into the mix, but this is looking like a two-team conference. We’ll find out more with Fresno State in Laramie on Saturday night.
Pick: Air Force to win +200. Low confidence.
Pick: Fresno State to win +200. Low confidence.
Conference USA
It’s the same story here, but it’s closer to certain. Conference USA is a two-team league.
Pick: Liberty to win +140. Low confidence.
Pick: Western Kentucky to win +140. Low confidence.
FIU @ New Mexico State
New Mexico State did lose to UMass in Week Zero. That is something that happened. Since that game, though, the Aggies have held their own, while FIU, despite a 3–2 record, has been underwhelming. FIU has a point differential of –23. That shouldn’t work out to a .600 win percentage, and FIU hasn’t been playing strong competition. Give us NMSU to to get to 1–1 in conference play, and to do it with a little room to spare.
Pick: New Mexico State –6.5 (–105). Low confidence.
