Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of +0.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,575 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +4.1% across 1,950 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). We are profitable all-time, but only narrowly.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, but mostly futures.
Today’s MLB futures, tonight’s college football, and this week’s college football futures. Here’s the context on each market.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. Using FanGraphs probabilities and including today’s plays, our mean expected final return on those 750 units is 158.36 units, or 21.1%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 44–40–2. We’re up 0.74 units and up 1%.
NFL futures: We began the season with 150 units in our NFL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 100 of those over the season’s eighteen weeks and keep 50 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FPI to make the picks, but FPI’s probabilities show us with an expected return on the 150 units of 3.36 units, or 1.1%.
World Series (Hedge)
We don’t like this value, but there’s a good chance the Rangers win the World Series, we have a lot of upside on the Diamondbacks, and we’ve come a long way, so we don’t want to lose units from here. As things stand, we’ve made 59.39 units, and entering today, we had a liability of 220 units on Texas winning it all. What we’re doing then, at least before Game 1, is trying to cut out a seventh of that liability per day, with seven the minimum number of days we’ll get to bet between now and the Rangers ultimately winning. We aren’t committed to this strategy for a longer term—that’s part of why we’re betting a minimal amount per day—but for now, the plan is to sacrifice a little bit of value daily in exchange for security. Hopefully, the Diamondbacks start the series strong, don’t look back, and we don’t have to hedge much more at all. Until Friday, though, this is how we’re going about it.
Pick: Texas to win –175. Medium confidence. x28
Jacksonville State @ FIU
We continue to really not trust FIU, and while last week’s win was impressive, they were also very close to losing by a touchdown. We remain high on Jacksonville State, who’s looking like the second-best team in Conference USA and potentially a nine-win outfit by the time their bowl destination is announced (and yes, they should make a bowl—it’s not looking like we’ll have enough eligible teams otherwise).
Pick: Jacksonville State –9 (–114). Low confidence.
NFL Playoffs
Someone has to make the playoffs in the NFC, and the Vikings’ win over the 49ers shows they’re a strong candidate for one of those seven spots. The Packers, meanwhile, are playing like one of the worst teams in football. Maybe they’ll turn it around, but right now these odds look like a layup.
Pick: Green Bay to miss playoffs –230. Medium confidence.
Pick: Minnesota to make playoffs +180. Low confidence.
AFC North
The Ravens’ value within the AFC North remains ridiculously high, so we’re in on it again here. We have a lot behind the Ravens, but they’re in that sweet spot of offering a big payout with a high probability.
Pick: Baltimore to win +110. Low confidence.
Super Bowl
The value’s positive again this week on Kansas City, and with nothing down on them, we’ll double up here, making them a profitable scenario in the Super Bowl portion of our portfolio. Per FPI, we’re now profitable in the Super Bowl market in more than 70% of scenarios.
Pick: Kansas City to win +450. Low confidence. x2
