Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,645 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.2% isn’t amazing, but it’s positive, and we are nearly locked into a positive return from our outstanding futures. Make of that what you will.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have a future again today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Houston @ Boston
Both bullpens aren’t great, both bullpens are a bit thin, Chris Sale should pitch better but he’s still concerning, Framber Valdez should get better results but he’s still concerning.
Good day for offenses, where the Red Sox actually currently project better than the Astros.
Pick: Boston to win -125. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Atlanta @ Los Angeles
Would you like to join my Huascar Ynoa fan club?
Home runs were the issue in his last two regular season starts, but his 100 K’s over 91 innings are promising, and having him on a short leash feeds into the under here too. I’m not sure this is going to be as bullpen-y of a bullpen game as many are expecting. Or rather, I’m not sure it should be. But even if he just goes once through the order, you could do a lot worse.
Pick: Atlanta to win +190. Low confidence.
Pick: Under 8 (-105). Low confidence.
World Series: Exact Matchup
Our hedge continues, and it’s better value than it’s been, actually. Still not great, but were we not in a position of hedging, we’d probably put something on Houston to win the ALCS today.
Double-unit, again. Just managing the futures portfolio here. Overall outlook still looks great.
Pick: Houston vs. Los Angeles +276. Low confidence.
Pick: Houston vs. Los Angeles +276. Low confidence.
