Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,365 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,754 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, but mostly futures.
We’ve got today’s MLB futures, we’ve got this week’s NFL futures, and we’ve got college football tonight. Here’s the context on each.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on those 750 units is 64.65 units, or 8.6%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 42–32–1. We’re up 6.96 units and up 9%.
NFL futures: We began the season with 150 units in our NFL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 100 of those over the season’s eighteen weeks and keep 50 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. Again, this is circular, because we use FPI to make the picks, but FPI’s probabilities show us with an expected return on the 150 units of 5.17 units, or 1.7%.
ALCS
First, we’re not hedging to pay for this just yet. We have some flexibility here, because the Phillies don’t play until tomorrow. One note on that front, though: The market is implying the Phillies have a 50% chance of winning the World Series if they win the NLCS, which tells us the market would have the Phillies favored over the Rangers in that hypothetical matchup, given the Astros should be a tougher opponent than the Rangers. We’ve said this before, but we have now run the numbers, and 50% is what they’re telling us.
What this means for our hedging is that in the table below, if we get our Philadelphia–over–Texas upside back equal to our Texas–over–Philadelphia downside before the World Series matchup is set, we should be able to hedge out of our Rangers liability to whatever extent we want, because the Rangers’ odds should be somewhere around +100 against –120 for the Phillies, if the split isn’t wider. So, if this goes wrong and the Astros lose Game 3 today, we’ll have to cover 18 units, max. That could be pretty expensive—the Rangers will be massively favored to win the ALCS; the Phils are currently at –900 to win the NLCS—but it’s manageable within the confines of our portfolio.
| Winner | Loser | Net |
| Arizona | Houston | 520.36 |
| Arizona | Texas | 434.26 |
| Philadelphia | Houston | 279.96 |
| Philadelphia | Texas | 193.86 |
| Houston | Arizona | 55.96 |
| Houston | Philadelphia | 3.96 |
| Texas | Arizona | -159.74 |
| Texas | Philadelphia | -211.74 |
Second, we alluded to this yesterday, but we don’t trust Max Scherzer at all tonight. It’s not just that he’s returning from injury. In 2021, Scherzer came in on two days of rest to get the NLDS Game 5 save over the Giants despite the Dodgers having other bullpen arms available. Scherzer then started Game 2 of the NLCS, rather than Game 1, and he started it having rested only two days after the high-stress inning in San Francisco. He pitched pretty well—he struck out seven—but he allowed a home run and he exited without completing five innings of work.
It wasn’t Max Scherzer’s choice to use Max Scherzer in that manner. Dave Roberts made the specific calls. But Scherzer said he was available, there were hints Scherzer pushed to pitch, and Scherzer was not ultimately his best self as a pitcher. It’s possible that was luck. It’s also possible Max Scherzer is not a very good gauge of his own readiness in playoff situations. You want that from your pitcher—you want them to try to go—but we don’t believe Scherzer is the Rangers’ best option tonight, and we think that inflates the value on the Astros which is already flashing positive. Give us Houston to make this 2–1 and take some weight off our backs.
Pick: Houston to win +390. Medium confidence. x4
FIU @ Sam Houston
I think FIU is still benefiting in the eyes of the public from having beaten three very bad teams by an average of five points, with all those games occurring more than a month ago. Sam Houston State is bad. FIU is much worse.
Pick: Sam Houston –5.5 (–110). Low confidence.
AFC South
We have an outstanding play on the Texans to win the AFC South, and it’s at 10-to-1. We also have the Colts at +275. We’re fine fading the Titans and slightly fading the Colts. These three units leave us profitable within this market in the likely case where Jacksonville or Houston wins it.
Pick: Jacksonville to win –125. Low confidence. x3
AFC North
We still like the Ravens, and this makes them a profitable outcome for us in the AFC North. They are, to us, the AFC’s fourth team right now, with a favorable stretch beginning after this week.
Pick: Baltimore to win +120. Low confidence.
Super Bowl
Last, a little more on the Niners. We’ll have a lot of Super Bowl bets as the season goes on, so this gives us a little cushion that’ll hopefully keep San Francisco a profitable scenario for us even if their odds shorten and their value goes away.
Pick: San Francisco to win +400. Low confidence.
