Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,606 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.0% across 947 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
MLB futures again today. The unit context on the futures is that we started the season with 1,040 units available for futures and hedges against those futures. Entering today, we’ve netted 14.74 units of profit, and we have 604.74 units in the bankroll, with 450 units pending.
World Series
We were one out away from having a very straightforward hedge to put us in a great position for the next playoff round. Had the Mariners held on last night, we could have placed a lot on the Astros at what likely would have been only slightly negative value in either the ALCS or World Series market and ensured ourselves two great options alive next week, one in each league, with lots of upside on our books with both Atlanta and Philadelphia in the NL. Instead, we’re either having to put a lot down on Houston (or the Yankees) to help our probability or we’re having to forgo the probability game and focus on building a lot more value.
We’re going with the latter, at least for today. Atlanta winning this Division Series still wouldn’t be disastrous for us, but Philadelphia winning it would be great, and they’re the series favorite now, leading 1-0 with their two best pitchers going in the two next games. When we’re this far out, hedging is still a dicey maneuver. Frankly, we don’t have the leverage to do it very thoroughly. By sticking with value, though, we can set ourselves up for a situation where if the Phillies are our only horse left in the race after this round, we have something to work with. (That said, we would really like the Padres to win tonight.)
Pick: Philadelphia to win +800. Medium confidence.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +800. Medium confidence.
