Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,344 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,747 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
We’ve got today’s MLB futures, we’ve got college football tonight, and we have this week’s NFL futures. Here’s the context on each.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on those 750 units is 92.37 units, or 12.3%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 34–29–1. We’re up 2.67 units and up 4%. We lost last night, but we’re coming off a great three weeks.
NFL futures: We began the season with 150 units in our NFL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 100 of those over the season’s eighteen weeks and keep 50 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. Again, this is circular, because we use FPI to make the picks, but FPI’s probabilities show us with an expected return on the 150 units of 3.87 units, or 1.3%.
ALCS
There isn’t much value out there today, but there’s a little on the Astros, and the Astros winning isn’t as good for our portfolio as the Twins winning, so this helps with the diversification and leverage as well. Things remain in a good place even with the Orioles going down.
Pick: Houston to win +110. Medium confidence. x5
UTEP @ FIU
Big acronym battle tonight.
These teams are bad. Movelor has them each among the seven worst teams in the FBS, with FIU close to the FCS median. FIU is a lot worse, but this line has them favored because of UTEP’s injuries. What to believe? It’s rare to see injuries make the nine-point impact this spread implies.
Pick: UTEP +3 (–107). Low confidence.
NFL Playoffs
The Ravens are struggling, but the Steelers defense is something fierce, and we’re putting more weight on the latter than the former in the AFC North situation. Over in the NFC, some mediocre teams are going to make the playoffs. One of those will most likely be the Seahawks.
Pick: Cincinnati to miss playoffs –220. Low confidence.
Pick: Cleveland to miss playoffs +105. Low confidence.
Pick: Seattle to make playoffs –140. Low confidence.
AFC North
As said above: This is a good Steelers defense. They’re also 2–0 in the division so far. If you’re going to lose to bad teams, better to lose to those outside the division than in it.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +425. Low confidence.
NFC
We continue to stack units on the Niners, partly because we don’t like the Eagles price but anticipate needing leverage against them. We’re hoping to be ahead of the market here.
Pick: San Francisco to win +160. Low confidence.
