Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,332 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Just college basketball for tonight, after the midterm election results so far cut our all-time deficit by more than half.
Bellarmine @ Louisville
Louisville lost to Lenoir-Rhyne in an exhibition game, and that’s bad! But the ASUN’s strong start stops here. Louisville’s the better team by a wide margin. Bellarmine is, so far, a one-hit wonder who got lucky when Liberty got beat. We’ll take advantage while we can.
Pick: Louisville -8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
FGCU @ San Diego
One caveat to this: Wayne McKinney was reportedly out sick on Monday, so it’s possible San Diego has something going around that could be pulling this line downwards. More likely, bettors are overreacting to FGCU beating USC. Those games happen. This spread is an overreaction to one of these games happening. San Diego is better by enough to, playing at home, cover this number.
Pick: San Diego -4.5 (-114). Low confidence.
