Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,913 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). We are profitable all-time, but only narrowly.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
It’s college basketball and MACtion again tonight, as we push college football futures and NFL futures back to tomorrow again this week. Here’s the context on the active markets.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 1–2. We’re down 1.09 units. It’s early.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 59–55–2. We’re down 0.91 units and down 1%. Win, and we’re profitable again on the season.
Loyola vs. Florida Atlantic
Maybe FAU is the real deal. Maybe they’re a top-ten team. More likely, they’re somewhere around 25th-best, and Loyola is at the start of a bounce-back year. We’re still finding our footing on this season, but this is on the right side of kenpom and matches our intuition.
Pick: Loyola +7 (–115). Low confidence.
Akron @ Miami (OH)
Brett Gabbert’s leg has not magically healed, but Miami appears undervalued here. Akron’s coming off a win a lot of people saw, Miami’s a good MAC team far beyond quarterback play, and Miami has a lot to play for.
Pick: Miami –17 (–106). Low confidence.
