Two more losses last night, and the election betting—though significantly profitable—managed to thread a needle which dramatically lessened our return.
Back to work.
Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan
SP+ narrowly prefers NIU here. FPI narrowly prefers WMU. Movelor is strongly in favor of WMU.
We’re rolling with our own system here, Movelor. NIU’s been disappointing since the Notre Dame game, and while their losses tend to be close, they don’t win by enough when they win to justify the excitement. They’re actually a little worse, per Movelor, than their preseason rating. Even with that road win over a team Movelor currently rates the fourth-best in the country.
Pick: Western Michigan +2 (–115). Low confidence.
Lipscomb @ Arkansas
We’re sticking with overs today, based on Monday’s big numbers there. Markets didn’t react that quickly last year to the same trend. We’re willing to take a shot.
Lipscomb has the potential to be a really fun low-major this season. Tonight, they should let Arkansas play fast, and help Arkansas play fast, and Arkansas’s talent should hold up its end of the bargain, even against this big, big number.
Pick: Over 159.5 (–110). Low confidence.
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How we do this, and how we’re doing:
Single-game college football bets: We’re always mediocre on these, but we’ve been awful this year. We’re 29–39–1 so far, down 12.63 units. We do use Movelor, our model’s rating system, to guide these, but we don’t always follow its lead.
Single-game college basketball bets: These have been a rollercoaster for us historically, but on the aggregate, results have been negative. This year, we’re betting one or two games a day, at least to start. We may taper that off. We use kenpom heavily. We’re 0–2 on the season.
Overall: We’ll have the full numbers back tomorrow (we’re still making sure we’ve got all the results right on our spreadsheet), but despite our election futures underperforming, we won enough to get back to a even all-time. A 0% average return, weighted by unit. We want to be very clear. Our published sports betting history is bad. But our published election betting history is now good enough to make up for it.
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These are for entertainment purposes and are not at all investment advice. If you think you might have a gambling problem, please call 1–800–GAMBLER to learn more and/or seek help.
