Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 616 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Two picks today, both in college basketball.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Virginia @ Syracuse
The reigning national champions did what many national champions do—they sent a lot of their guys to play professionally. Kyle Guy is gone. Ty Jerome is gone. De’Andre Hunter is gone. Even Jack Salt, who seemed to be a permanent fixture in Charlottesville, is gone. But while this year’s Cavaliers team is going to feature a lot of new faces, there’s plenty of reason to trust Tony Bennett’s ability to make something of them. KenPom has UVA rated as the fifth-best team in the country, and while uncertainty is high when it comes to preseason projections, that’s coming from a system with a strong preseason track record.
Syracuse, for its part, is starting the post-Tyus Battle era, which is also the post-Oshae Brissett era and the post-Frank Howard era. Yes, the Orange are at home. Yes, Virginia will be adjusting to a new rotation. Still, it’s fair to think the Cavs will start their reign with a nice conference victory.
Pick: Virginia -3 (-110). Low confidence.
Jackson State @ UC-Santa Barbara
Jackson State is on a moneymaking tour of California. After playing in Riverside last night, where Cal Baptist is located, they’re up to the Thunderdome tonight, which, yes, is the semi-official name of UC-Santa Barbara’s home court (it has a storied history, which involves tortillas).
Playing on back-to-back nights isn’t easy, and the fatigue narrative is, to an extent, valid here. In an average Division I men’s basketball game, you’d expect to see each team get roughly 72 possessions. Last night’s between Jackson State and Cal Baptist featured somewhere around 79 apiece. With Cal Baptist controlling the game early in the second half, though, Jackson State only played two players for 30 or more minutes, so while the visitors will likely embrace the slow tempo UCSB’s preferred the last few years, there’s little reason to believe their already fairly ineffective offense will be especially fruitless tonight.
Pick: Over 132.5 (-110). Low confidence.
