Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,778 published picks, not including pending futures. 3% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football game picks, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Just a few college football futures today, the odds for which come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
ACC
NC State likely has no margin for error when it comes to winning the Atlantic. They’d take a head-to-head over Clemson if each ended with two losses, but the theoretical three-way Wake/Clemson/NCSU tie at two losses ends with Clemson going to the ACC Championship, and if NCSU doesn’t beat Wake Forest, they might not get to a tiebreaker at all.
Still, if NC State can just beat Florida State and Wake on the road and Syracuse and UNC at home, they’ll go to the ACC Championship, and there are scenarios where Clemson or Wake finishes with enough losses that the Wolfpack could get away with one more loss. Once in the title game? It gets close to a tossup.
Pick: North Carolina State to win +450. Low confidence.
Pac-12
I don’t know if Utah’s better than Oregon, but having beaten UCLA, USC, and Arizona State, they’re one win away from punching their ticket to Las Vegas. Once there, they might be favored, either against Oregon or in the very possible scenario in which Oregon doesn’t make it.
One way Oregon might not make it? If Washington State beats them in Eugene. It’s not likely, but Wazzu isn’t bad, didn’t seem to miss Nick Rolovich must last weekend, and has this week off to get their, excuse me, Ducks in order. Of course, then the Cougars would have to beat Washington in the Apple Cup, but…it’s 50-to-1, guys. Worth a flyer.
Pick: Utah to win +100. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +5000. Low confidence.
