Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,796 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% across 1,126 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Should the Phillies win the World Series, we’ll be profitable again when that happens. Should the Astros win, we’ll have to wait until Election Day or later.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Another night of the World Series, and here’s where our MLB Futures portfolio stands: We started the season with 1,040 units available. We’ve so far profited 12.84 units. We have 682.84 units in our bankroll. Before the following picks are placed, we’re in a scenario where we’ll profit by an additional 267.30 units should the Phillies win it all, and lose an additional 19.42 units should the Astros win it all.
World Series (Hedge)
We do the same thing we’ve been doing, which in this case means hedging a quarter of the gap between our Phillies upside and what we need to make to be back even. It brings our scenarios down to: We make 255.30 additional units if the Phillies ultimately win the series and we place no further bets, we lose 3.58 additional units if the Astros ultimately win the series and we place no further bets. Twelve units.
One nice thing with this is that we now are locked into a season-long profit, which is better than the alternative. Our worst case is only a 0.9% return, but that might be better than certain financial indices over these last seven months. The best case, a 25% return, is in line with our expectations of ourselves with MLB futures based on the last few years. Not a rousing success, but a solid year. Hopefully that’s what we get.
Pick: Houston to win +132. Medium confidence. x6
