Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,977 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got a college basketball pick for tonight, and we’ve got our NFL futures for the week. We’re not adding any college football futures today, because even when we run the alternate version of our model (the one where Georgia has a bad chance of making the playoff with a loss to Alabama), our results come out comparably. We may add more on Friday or Saturday, though. Here’s the context on each active market.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 15–10. We’re up 3.62 units and we’re up 14%.
NFL futures: We began the season with 150 units in our NFL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 100 of those over the season’s eighteen weeks and keep 50 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. Again, this is circular, because we use FPI to make the picks, but FPI’s probabilities show us with an expected return on the 150 units of 1.32 units, or 0.4%.
Colorado @ Colorado State
We love everything about this one. Colorado State’s kenpom rating keeps improving. The line is variable, a full point apart in the books we reference. Colorado State’s a good free throw-shooting team favored by two possessions, matching the criteria for this trial we’re doing. Give us the Rams to avenge that College Gameday finish.
Pick: Colorado State –3.5 (–115). Low confidence.
AFC
The Ravens are an underdog to take the top seed in the AFC, but they’ve got a great chance at a top-2 seed, and the AFC 7-seed is looking likely to be mediocre. Further south, we like the Dolphins, and not only because they might get to play multiple games in the state of Florida (the Jaguars could help them out).
Pick: Baltimore to win +300. Low confidence. x2
Pick: Miami to win +400. Low confidence.
Super Bowl
We haven’t been able to get value on the Cowboys in the NFC, which makes it more important to have upside on them to win the Super Bowl. We have some significant regular season vulnerabilities, and we have a little downside on contenders in the postseason, but our only real postseason holes are on the Cowboys in the NFC and the Eagles to win the Super Bowl. This helps make up for that first one.
Pick: Dallas to win +1000. Low confidence. x2
