Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 688 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
South Carolina State @ Tulsa
Elijah Joiner, one half of Tulsa’s point guard platoon, missed last Wednesday’s narrow victory over Southeastern Louisiana. Whether because of this or by independent cause, it was one of Tulsa’s weakest showings of the young season, dropping their place in KenPom’s overall adjusted efficiency margin to a season-low 127th. Tulsa did win, but that was an expectation.
Tulsa has underwhelmed to date, and with no news on Joiner, there’s reason to be skeptical of the Golden Hurricane. Specifically, though, that skepticism should be directed at the offense, which has underperformed its expected efficiency by more than a point per possession on the season, while the defense has overperformed by nearly the same margin. With South Carolina State content to let Tulsa play the slower pace with which it’s comfortable, don’t expect much scoring this afternoon.
Pick: Under 138.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Miami (OH) vs. Wright State
Loudon Love left Wright State’s game last night with what sounds to be an arm injury of some sort. Love, a 6’8” junior, is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country and is adept at drawing fouls. A prolonged absence from him could be disastrous for Wright State, the Horizon League’s best team on paper. Obviously, we hope he’s healthy.
As far as today’s total goes, though:
Love is also a prolific defensive rebounder and an effective shot-blocker. His presence will be missed on the offensive end, of course, but it will also be missed when trying to slow Dalonte Brown and Bam Bowman, two of Miami’s most potent offensive weapons. Bowman especially projects to be a problem. He returned to action Monday following a three-game absence and looks to be back at full strength. With projection systems evaluating a Miami that’s only had Bowman for half its games, the Redhawk offense is likely underrated enough to balance out Wright State’s net overvaluation should Love miss tonight’s contest (which, at this point, could either happen or not happen—there’s been no public word at the time I write this).
Yesterday’s picks paid mention to the downward push bettors were giving totals at this tournament, the Gulf Coast Showcase. That seems to be factoring into this as well, and it might be a real effect. Still, this is getting a larger downward push than the rest, and the gap is larger than what it should be factoring in the Love situation and Bowman’s return.
Pick: Over 141.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Seton Hall vs. Oregon
While Kansas-Dayton figures to be a solid matchup, the best game of the night should be Seton Hall-Oregon. Two of the twenty best teams in the country, hailing from opposite coasts, playing in the Bahamas. Oregon still isn’t at full strength—they won’t get N’Faly Dante eligible for a few more weeks—but they’ve outperformed expectations so far, as despite a rigorous schedule to date, they’re 5-0 with top-twelve effective field goal percentages on both ends of the court to go with top-six three-point percentages on each end.
Seton Hall, of course, is no slouch. They’ve matched the high expectations set for them, with their only loss so far coming by three to Michigan State. Myles Powell has been one of the best players in the country, as expected, and while the team lacks Oregon’s shooting prowess and propensity to force poor shots, they make up for it by being mediocre at defensive rebounding and forcing turnovers, as opposed to downright bad as the Ducks are, and by protecting the ball better than the Ducks do too.
Oregon’s going to try to slow things down, but they’ve played noticeably faster basketball than last year’s team. It won’t be a shootout, but it’s more likely than any other game today to be a thriller.
Pick: Over 134 (-110). Low confidence.
